EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Hagibis!

[Iceresistance]

Raw ADT just exploded to a 6.7

[Kingarabian]

STY look to it. One of the more unique looking EPAC majors we've ever seen.

Dvorak will get very close to 7.0 soon but constraints will cap the intensity over the next 6 hours. I'm worried this pulls a 2015 Jimena or a 2018 Norman where it maintains MH status but backs off the RI.

[SconnieCane]

Hagibis!
https://imageshack.com/i/pnBHRd11p
https://imageshack.com/i/poZ3rT27p

Wow. It's literally beating Lee to the punch in what the ATL cyclone's been modeled to do in about 24-36 hours. Saw at least 1 post comparing its structure and forecast evolution to Hagibis. Uncanny.

[Ntxw]

Talk about a case of stunning RI.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye up to DG and warming throughout the eye - often a precursor to a fairly upper elechon TC.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

STY look to it. One of the more unique looking EPAC majors we've ever seen.

Dvorak will get very close to 7.0 soon but constraints will cap the intensity over the next 6 hours. I'm worried this pulls a 2015 Jimena or a 2018 Norman where it maintains MH status but backs off the RI.

This is why we probably won’t get an official 5 unless NHC decides to ignore SAB and possibly ADT and TAFB breaks constraints. However, if this looks how I think this will look tonight, I’m not against anyone thinking it is one.

[Ntxw]

STY look to it. One of the more unique looking EPAC majors we've ever seen.

Dvorak will get very close to 7.0 soon but constraints will cap the intensity over the next 6 hours. I'm worried this pulls a 2015 Jimena or a 2018 Norman where it maintains MH status but backs off the RI.

This is why we probably won’t get an official 5 unless NHC decides to ignore SAB and possibly ADT and TAFB breaks constraints. However, if this looks how I think this will look tonight, I’m not against anyone thinking it is one.

Have to see when the eye clears how warm it goes.

This is a bit further west than what Linda was.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd estimate 110knots but will be 125knots within 6 hours and probably 130-135knots within 12 hours. I won't predict cat5 after Dora as satellite estimates make it almost impossible. Hell, even Dorian would have probably been a cat4 over the open Atlantic.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ntxw]

I'd estimate 110knots but will be 125knots within 6 hours and probably 130-135knots within 12 hours. I won't predict cat5 after Dora as satellite estimates make it almost impossible. Hell, even Dorian would have probably been a cat4 over the open Atlantic.

You almost have to get some dark grey within medium gray with warm eye for a good chance these days. Saola couldn't even do it operationally even with that. At least there will be some guidance with Lee recon as the two will behave similarly below 20N.

[Ntxw]

Eye is clearing. Just wow at the cold tops.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye nearly WMG already.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd estimate 110knots but will be 125knots within 6 hours and probably 130-135knots within 12 hours. I won't predict cat5 after Dora as satellite estimates make it almost impossible. Hell, even Dorian would have probably been a cat4 over the open Atlantic.

Predicting how strong the NHC will make it using traditional estimation methods and how strong it actually is is two separate things in cases like these

[Iceresistance]

ADT just shot up like a rocket

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2023 Time : 194020 UTC
Lat : 14:48:00 N Lon : 111:31:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.2 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.6C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

New peak at 135kt/155moh.

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution
1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening
major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep
convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite
intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB.
Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial
intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to
rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours.

Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid
intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models,
DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the
climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24
hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI
probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135
kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles
could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast
lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable
environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to
cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air,
which should induce weakening.

Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of
west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The
forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[CrazyC83]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149078587874476092/IMG_0785.png

Eye nearly WMG already.

That would be T7.0 I believe? I know it is T7.5 with a solid eye and CMG all the way around.

[Iceresistance]

Holy crap

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.8 7.0