ATL: GERT - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

It HAS dissipated, the NHC just won't stop CPR.

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

I still see a circulation on Visible Satellite


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg9gv.gif

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert has finally succumbed to the very unfavorable environmental
conditions it has been embedded in for the last several days. First
light visible satellite imagery shows the low-level circulation has
become very diffuse, and is likely very close to opening up into a
trough. In fact, the surface observations in the Lesser Antilles to
the west of Gert have been rising this morning despite the
circulation moving closer to them. In addition, all of the deep
convective activity east of the center has largely dissipated.
Based on these available data, Gert no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory.

The initial motion is a slow west-northwest drift at about 4 kt. The
remnant low is forecast to turn northward and drift very slowly
until it completely dissipates in about 2-3 days. The guidance is
in good agreement with this scenario. Future information on Gert
can also be found in High Seas forecast issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.4N 59.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 18.3N 60.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 60.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 19.2N 59.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 18.9N 59.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

[wxman57]

It HAS dissipated, the NHC just won't stop CPR.

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

I still see a circulation on Visible Satellite

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg9gv.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg9gv.gif

A convectionless weak swirl is irrelevant. It's no longer a TD. Takes more than a swirl.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The Best Track continues to be updated.

AL, 06, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 582W, 20, 1010, LO

[Iceresistance]

She's still spinning and producing convection


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg756.gif

[Sciencerocks]

You could argue that this deserves at least 70% as it appears to have a closed LLC. Not saying it will become much.

[colbroe]

Looks like the remnants of Gert might be heading to the Windward islands

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've been looking at this the last couple of days and today it has really fired convection. It is getting blown off by northerly shear, but it still has a vigorous LLC and it is heading west into the Caribbean where conditions are better. JB has a phrase that might apply here. You need to watch these systems that can survive extreme shear because they can spin up fast if they find favorable conditions. This being such a small system, the models could easily miss it.

[Landy]

[abajan]

A fair amount of thunderstorm activity this morning north of Barbados.

[cycloneye]

They keep plotting it.

AL, 06, 2023082518, , BEST, 0, 160N, 597W, 20, 1010, LO

[Landy]

Resilient little thing.

[snowystar]

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Gert) are located several hundred miles to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions do
not appear to be that favorable for additional development over the
next couple of days as the system drifts slowly northward or north-
northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable
for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Gert) are located several hundred miles to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions do
not appear to be that favorable for additional development over the
next couple of days as the system drifts slowly northward or north-
northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable
for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[AnnularCane]

I had figured she must have gotten absorbed by Franklin or something.

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Gert) are located several hundred miles north of
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming
unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts
northward or north- northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[zzzh]

ASCAT shows a closed circulation with 25kt. This should not be 10/10, this is a TD.

[Sciencerocks]

I agree...If 11 is a depression then so is gert!