ATL: BRET - Models

[sphelps8681]

Salute!

I am wondering why many models have the new storm re-curving as I thot it would due to the developing El Nino versus models having it continuing across the Carrib as many early storms do.

Here on GoM coast, last thing we need this early summer is a strong storm. We have had plenty of bad wx already.

Gums wonders...

Yea I know. Had a tree come through my living room last Saturday during storm. Not ready for a TS or Hurricane. Still waiting on Contractors. Lumberton, Tx.

[aspen]

12z GFS is noticeably weaker, with a mid-grade TS taking pretty much the exact track as the forecast cone.

12z CMC incorrectly initializes this as a broad open wave, so its weak solution can be discarded. 12z ICON is also too weak.

[Hurricane Mike]

Definitely seems to be a westward trend, but that doesn't discount the potential that the system is still at hurricane intensity when it goes through the islands.

[BobHarlem]

Some of the islands will get impacted by TD3/Bret. But it's up in the air if it gets up toward PR & the VI yet or not.

[Teban54]

NHC has TD3/Bret at 1008mb for the 18z 6/19 best track. Comparing this to various model runs:

• 12z HMON: 1011 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1008 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 994 mb.
• 6z HMON: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1007 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 991 mb.
• 12z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Still running, down to 963 mb so far.
• 6z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 955 mb.
• 6z HAFS-A: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 982 mb.
• 6z HAFS-B: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 984 mb (right at LA landfall).
• 12z GFS: 1005 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 993 mb.
• 6z GFS: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 970 mb (while recurving).
• 12z Euro: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1005 mb.
• 6z Euro: 1009 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1001 mb.

While it's tempting to write off HWRF and HAFS A/B as being overly aggressive, they are the closest in terms of current intensity. HMON, despite being the "sane" one among hurricane models, ends up way underestimating Bret's short-term evolution.

[JetFuel_SE]

NHC has TD3/Bret at 1008mb for the 18z 6/19 best track. Comparing this to various model runs:

• 12z HMON: 1011 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1008 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 994 mb.
• 6z HMON: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1007 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 991 mb.
• 12z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Still running, down to 963 mb so far.
• 6z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 955 mb.
• 6z HAFS-A: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 982 mb.
• 6z HAFS-B: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 984 mb (right at LA landfall).
• 12z GFS: 1005 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 993 mb.
• 6z GFS: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 970 mb (while recurving).
• 12z Euro: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1005 mb.
• 6z Euro: 1009 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1001 mb.

While it's tempting to write off HWRF and HAFS A/B as being overly aggressive, they are the closest in terms of current intensity. HMON, despite being the "sane" one among hurricane models, ends up way underestimating Bret's short-term evolution.

It's almost like hurricane models have issues when they don't have recon data to work with.

[StormPyrate]

Long range GPS ensembles point at what could be the remnants of Brent reforming in the gulf and heading north.
How likely is that to really happen?

[Spacecoast]

Long range GPS ensembles point at what could be the remnants of Brent reforming in the gulf and heading north.

Don't see it....: Maybe 1 or 2 members, but more members into CA.

[Nimbus]

Levi noted on his tropical tidbits update tonight that the GFS model is showing some shear inhibiting intensification beyond -50 west. There was about 20 knots of shear in the hodograph for that area. Just means they think it will outrun the ridge a little sooner and stay a tropical storm.

A hurricane might track a little further north over Guadeloupe but hopefully it will cross the islands at tropical storm intensity or less.

The recon flight Wednesday will have real time shear analysis which will be more valuable.

[JetFuel_SE]

Levi noted on his tropical tidbits update tonight that the GFS model is showing some shear inhibiting intensification beyond -50 west. There was about 20 knots of shear in the hodograph for that area. Just means they think it will outrun the ridge a little sooner and stay a tropical storm.

A hurricane might track a little further north over Guadeloupe but hopefully it will cross the islands at tropical storm intensity or less.

The recon flight Wednesday will have real time shear analysis which will be more valuable.

Models have overestimated shear several times in the past, most notably with Michael.

[Jr0d]

Long range GPS ensembles point at what could be the remnants of Brent reforming in the gulf and heading north.

Don't see it....: Maybe 1 or 2 members, but more members into CA.
https://i.ibb.co/QcFqtNR/ec2.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/N2tzc2P/ec1.jpg

Look at the individual ensemble run on Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 62000&fh=6

[NDG]

HWRF all alone, most models now show Bret becoming a hurricane very questionable, time to retire it sooner than later.

[NDG]

12z Euro with its strongest run on Bret since at least Saturday night's run.

[kevin]

Hurricane models are all over the place again.

12z HWRF
Initializes as 35 kt, 1008 mb. Hurricane at +42 hrs, MH at +63. Peaks at 951 mb, 113 kt before making landfall in Puerto Rico.


12z HMON
Initializes as 35 kt, 1007 mb. Never truly gets its act together, though it does peak at 55 kt before reaching the islands.


12z HAFS-A
Initializes as 38 kt, 1008 mb. Hurricane at +42 hrs and reaches the islands as a ~70 kt hurricane. Slowly falls apart afterwards.


12z HAFS-B
Initializes as 38 kt, 1008 mb. Has some sporadic frames above 65 kt but nothing consistent. Does remain a TS until after it passes the islands and fluctuates between the 50 and 65 kt range until then.

[Nimbus]

Levi noted on his tropical tidbits update tonight that the GFS model is showing some shear inhibiting intensification beyond -50 west. There was about 20 knots of shear in the hodograph for that area. Just means they think it will outrun the ridge a little sooner and stay a tropical storm.

A hurricane might track a little further north over Guadeloupe but hopefully it will cross the islands at tropical storm intensity or less.

The recon flight Wednesday will have real time shear analysis which will be more valuable.

Models have overestimated shear several times in the past, most notably with Michael.

That is why I'm waiting for the recon data.
They will have real time altitude column data for moisture and shear.
SST's are heating up as Bret moves west which might be why he hasn't outrun his small CDO yet.
HWRF is the outlier, must be less than 5% chance of that solution verifying.

[BobHarlem]

The 0z GFS and 0z CMC are hinting that Bret or its remnants eventually crosses into the East Pacific and develops out there.

[NDG]

Latest 06z Euro has Bret clipping the northern end of Barbados but strongest winds staying north of the Island, near 50 mph wind gusts at the most in the Island but near 70 mph wind gusts in St Lucia.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro ensembles for Bret have a few branching off to to the north that the earlier runs did not have:

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1671639289766219776




http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

[BobHarlem]

Euro ensembles still not 100% convinced we're going to be done with Bret in the longer term.

 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1671826150044344321