ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5840/vNrcKy.gif

No image.

[wxman57]

Bret is really taking a hit from wind shear now. Bones has gotten out of his recliner and is warming up his voice...

[LarryWx]

 Bret became a TS at 42.2W, which is the furthest east of any ON RECORD in June back to 1851.

Bret would not likely have been identified at 42W prior to modern satellite. You really can't go back to 1851 and say it's never happened.

I agree and I didn't at all say it never happened. That's why I said and capitalized "ON RECORD" as well as saying "back to 1851". So, "on record" implies that some could have been missed and "back to 1851" implies that nothing from 1850 and earlier would even make this dataset.

However, modern satellites do go back a good number of decades. Thus, I feel it is still well worth noting since it is quite an anomaly.

Aside: the June TC from 1933 is on the record as becoming a TD near 42.5W despite no satellite.

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2023062318, , BEST, 0, 131N, 657W, 45, 1004, TS

[canebeard]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5840/vNrcKy.gif

Bret could get arrested for indecent exposure.

[Sanibel]

Stripped...


Almost as bad as the Road Runner and Wyle E Coyote...


That's why they call it the Caribbean Grave Yard...

[wxman57]

 Bret became a TS at 42.2W, which is the furthest east of any ON RECORD in June back to 1851.

Bret would not likely have been identified at 42W prior to modern satellite. You really can't go back to 1851 and say it's never happened.

I agree and I didn't at all say it never happened. That's why I said and capitalized "ON RECORD" as well as saying "back to 1851". So, "on record" implies that some could have been missed and "back to 1851" implies that nothing from 1850 and earlier would even make this dataset.

However, modern satellites do go back a good number of decades. Thus, I feel it is still well worth noting since it is quite an anomaly.

Aside: the June TC from 1933 is on the record as becoming a TD near 42.5W despite no satellite.

Okay, I apologize. I thought you meant definitely none before 1851. I remember seeing a presentation by Chris Landsea after the 2005 season comparing 1933 with 2005. There were no storms in the eastern third of the Atlantic in 1933. Remove storms in the same area from 2005 and it wasn't nearly as active as 1933. It's hard to get good statistics going very far back because identification and classification technology keeps improving.

[GCANE]

Bret getting dressed for a night out in the Carib

[BobHarlem]

Bret getting dressed for a night out in the Carib

Tossing on an overcoat here


Bonaire getting storms popping up over it from it, but that convection that does pop up is probably pretty rough.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1672355699135741952

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Bret going to town in the Carib.
Getting on the SW side of the trof.
Spinning Hot Tower with a warm-core feature on IR

[GCANE]

Bret is starting to push back the UL shear.
355K PV in the clear

[GCANE]

Recon heading in

[NDG]

Recon found TS force winds going in, if it finds a closed LLC it is still TS Cindy this morning.

[GCANE]

1008mb per drop

[NDG]

Very weak LLC left out of it, will definitely open back up into a wave if not during the day tonight.

[GCANE]

Looks like it did open up as a wave

[NDG]

Looks like it did open up as a wave

They were still able to fix a center, but barely, they will keep it as weak TS for now.

[wxman57]

Looks like the plane is finding multiple swirls with a pressure of 1008mb.  One at 13.1N/71W, one at 13.1N/71.3W, and one down south near 12.7N/71.9W.   Winds in the ABC islands were generally 5-15 kts as it passed just north overnight. East winds south of the second center fix doesn't bode well for Bret's longevity. Plane could be leaving, which would most likely mean a downgrade to remnant low.