ATL: MARGOT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

First forecast has 80kts in 5 days

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Should be another ~8 ACE over the next 5 days, probably 10+ ACE since it could stay tropical many days after that. Together with Lee these two alone should easily be able to get us to 100 ACE.

[kevin]

[cycloneye]

Hello Margot.

AL, 14, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 165N, 276W, 35, 1004, TS

[MarioProtVI]

ATCF has Margot.

[Hurricane2022]

Helli Margot.

AL, 14, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 165N, 276W, 35, 1004, TS

Hi Barbie!

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Now a Tropical Storm on the Best Track.

[WalterWhite]

Hopefully, this becomes a major hurricane. Not only will this add to 2023's ACE total dramatically, but more importantly, it would also help weaken the subtropical ridge dramatically, pushing Lee away from land.

[ChrisH-UK]

Margot and the next wave coming off Africa

[CrazyC83]

I agree that, with one major exception - Bermuda - a stronger Margot is our best friend, as that could be the key to breaking down the ridge and opening an exit path for Lee. That said, Bermuda probably wouldn't want that since that could affect them to a greater degree.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1699890134790156711

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1699890134790156711?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1699890134790156711%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

And 2023 is the only one with an El Niño during peak season.

[Sciencerocks]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1699890134790156711?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1699890134790156711%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

And 2023 is the only one with an El Niño during peak season.

I am of the belief that global warming is pumping so much energy into the oceans that the added energy within the system maybe overcoming the negatives that would have happened in the past. There's so much energy that the subtropical jet is is much further north this year and the super hot water is more then fueling the storms.

[Michele B]

????? 96L isn't looking half bad, why did they drop the 7-day percentage?

Because model support really dropped today. The Euro barely develops it now.

Maybe Lee sucked all the warm ocean water away???

[Sciencerocks]

[WalterWhite]

Margot is struggling to intensify for some reason.

AL, 14, 2023090800, , BEST, 0, 166N, 286W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARGOT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

[kronotsky]

Margot is struggling to intensify for some reason.

AL, 14, 2023090800, , BEST, 0, 166N, 286W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARGOT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

It just got named, haha, give it a minute! Not forecast to be 40 knots until tomorrow morning anyway.

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

Poor Margot, getting no attention. Lee has stolen the spotlight for good reason.

[Texoz]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1699890134790156711?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1699890134790156711%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

And 2023 is the only one with an El Niño during peak season.

I am of the belief that global warming is pumping so much energy into the oceans that the added energy within the system maybe overcoming the negatives that would have happened in the past. There's so much energy that the subtropical jet is is much further north this year and the super hot water is more then fueling the storms.

Yep. Occam's Razor.