Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
A new burst of deep convection has produced a nearly circular
Central Dense Overcast over Jova's center, although a 0045 UTC
SSMIS microwave pass showed that the convection favors the
southwestern portion of the circulation due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Still, Dvorak estimates have increased to
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the various
objective estimates have recently converged around 60 kt, which
will be the initial intensity. Jova's intensity has increased by
30 kt over the past 24 hours, and thus rapid intensification is
ongoing.
Jova is situated to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching
southwest of Mexico, and it continues to move toward the
west-northwest (290 degrees) at 8 kt. The track forecast, and the
forecast track, are both straightforward. Jova is expected to
maintain a west-northwestward motion around the southwestern
periphery of the ridge, but at a faster forward speed as the
distance between the two features decreases. No appreciable changes
were made from the previous NHC forecast except to show a slightly
faster motion, hedging toward the latest HCCA consensus solution.
The moderate shear over Jova is expected to abate during the next
6-12 hours. In addition, water temperatures are between 29-30
degrees Celsius, mid-level relative humidities are near 80 percent,
and upper-level divergence is forecast to be strong during the next
day or two. All of these ingredients point to a recipe for
continued rapid intensification, and many of the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS
thresholds suggest it is likely to persist for another 36 to 48
hours, with Jova reaching major hurricane strength. That said, the
regional hurricane models are much less enthusiastic about Jova's
continued strengthening and show peak intensities no more than 70-75
kt. Given the seemingly conducive environment, the NHC intensity
forecast continues to favor the stronger solutions, and peaks Jova
at category 4 intensity in 48 hours. Colder waters should induce
weakening by day 3, continuing through the end of the forecast
period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 13.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.9N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.6N 115.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 18.1N 120.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.4N 122.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 24.2N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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