ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[aspen]

HAFS-A at 989 mbs south of PR.

https://i.imgur.com/eb7QIKX.png

HAFS-B at 973 mbs south of Mona Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IbdoN0v.png

Hurricane models really aren't best for invests...it's an interesting piece of info. Global models basically all kill it

The globals seem to be poorly initializing 95L’s convective activity and are probably underestimating it, but the hurricane models are likely over-estimating it. They have a high bias for western MDR/ECar storms, especially the HWRF, which blows this up into a major in the 12z run. I’m leaning towards an intermediate solution verifying where 95L develops into a weak-moderate TS, but doesn’t get stronger than that.

[Nuno]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4Nk7sRhR/c3ea8cde-8077-4f7c-b562-117ac004684c.gif [/url]

06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?

That's a pretty pronounced dip. The Euro, and CMC (to a lesser extent), shows it too. Can't recall when last I've seen models show anything like that in the MDR east of the Antilles.

Irma and Ike perhaps?

[Kingarabian]

HAFS-A at 989 mbs south of PR.

https://i.imgur.com/eb7QIKX.png

HAFS-B at 973 mbs south of Mona Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IbdoN0v.png

Hurricane models really aren't best for invests...it's an interesting piece of info. Global models basically all kill it

As Aric Dunn likes to say: the models are only as good as the information they have. Can't trust the globals too much when even the GFS initializes very poorly.

[cycloneye]

SHIP continues to have relativly low shear.

[hurricane2025]

Euro ensembles everywhere in gulf

[LarryWx]

Euro ensembles everywhere in gulf

I count 6 H including 3 MH in the Gulf and elsewhere on this run.

[BobHarlem]

18z early runs

[Blown Away]

18z early runs
https://i.imgur.com/or4nUqh.png

https://i.imgur.com/GVfak9X.png

The HAFS are separating from the cluster and like a strong system moving towards the big islands.

[abk_0710]

Euro ensembles everywhere in gulf

Can you post this image please?

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles everywhere in gulf

[Iceresistance]

18z early runs
https://i.imgur.com/or4nUqh.png

https://i.imgur.com/GVfak9X.png

What is with the 18z HWFI?

[JetFuel_SE]

18z early runs
https://i.imgur.com/or4nUqh.png

https://i.imgur.com/GVfak9X.png

What is with the 18z HWFI?

The models ending with an I aren't really actual real models, It's using the outputs from the 12z runs, but interpolated 6 hours forwards.
The actual 18z runs will almost certainly be different.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It's hilarious how bad the HWRF sucks at small, poorly defined invests like this. This will not be a Cat 3 in 5 days.

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS: One lonely member

[Blown Away]

Hard not to think 95L’s life won’t be short lived based on models, but the NHC continues to increase development odds. I gotta think the only way 95L has a chance is to get near or N of the big islands where it appears the UL environment is good. I do think the GFS & Euro showing little to no development through 5-7 days has skewed the model suite tracks S into the E Caribbean graveyard.

[zzzh]

18Z eps much weaker.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the 12Z Euro long-range hints at development of 95l once it gets into the EPAC. Conditions look very favorable there:

[Teban54]

It appears that most, if not all, models became a lot more bearish since 18z, despite the continued organization. I have no idea why.

GFS ensembles essentially drop it now, and so do all 4 hurricane models (which might be because they're based on GFS). 0z EC ensembles dropped support even further (if anything, seems to pick up the idea of it developing in the Caribbean). Intensity guidance also weaker and slower.

[jasons2k]

Not surprising the weaker solutions stay south.

Watching this one closely. I'm not expecting much until/IF it reaches the Gulf, but if it gets there, it could be trouble.

[Cpv17]

Not surprising the weaker solutions stay south.

Watching this one closely. I'm not expecting much until/IF it reaches the Gulf, but if it gets there, it could be trouble.

Yeah, my money is on it crossing over into the EPAC but if it can make it to the NW Caribbean with any sort of heartbeat, then the Gulf Coast should be on alert.