Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023
Microwave data and visible satellite imagery indicate the depression
is producing small curved bands of convection tonight. More of the
convective activity is occurring over the western portion of the
circulation, likely due to modest easterly shear over the system.
The bands are still somewhat fragmented, and the latest Dvorak
classifications are T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, with
scatterometer data later tonight hopefully providing more clarity on
the system's location and intensity.
The somewhat uncertain initial motion is westward (280/10 kt) as the
cyclone is steered by a high pressure ridge to its north. This
ridge, which extends westward from the southwestern U.S. across
northern Mexico to the eastern Pacific, should remain the dominant
steering feature during the next several days. The various track
models generally agree on a west-northwestward motion through this
week, although there are speed differences noted during the first
few days of the forecast period, with the ECMWF faster than the GFS.
The updated NHC forecast is somewhat faster than the previous
prediction at most forecast times, and it generally lies between the
simple consensus (TVCN) and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) aids.
Environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for some
significant intensification of the cyclone later this week. In the
near term, modest strengthening is forecast while the cyclone
becomes better organized and solidifies an inner core. Once this
occurs, the system should be primed to take advantage of conducive
conditions for strengthening. The deep-layer shear is forecast to be
fairly low for the next several days, and the cyclone is forecast to
move within a very moist and diffluent upper-level environment over
very warm SSTs during the next 72-96 h. The rapid intensification
(RI) indices, notably the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS, show a well above
average (60 to 70 percent) chance of a 65-kt intensity increase
during the next 72 h. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to explicitly show RI midweek, and the system is
predicted to peak at major hurricane strength. This forecast lies
between the IVCN/HCCA aids and the higher statistical-dynamical
guidance SHIPS and LGEM. By days 4-5, some weakening is expected
while the system moves over progressively cooler waters.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 12.7N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.6N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.4N 117.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023
Microwave data and visible satellite imagery indicate the depression
is producing small curved bands of convection tonight. More of the
convective activity is occurring over the western portion of the
circulation, likely due to modest easterly shear over the system.
The bands are still somewhat fragmented, and the latest Dvorak
classifications are T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, with
scatterometer data later tonight hopefully providing more clarity on
the system's location and intensity.
The somewhat uncertain initial motion is westward (280/10 kt) as the
cyclone is steered by a high pressure ridge to its north. This
ridge, which extends westward from the southwestern U.S. across
northern Mexico to the eastern Pacific, should remain the dominant
steering feature during the next several days. The various track
models generally agree on a west-northwestward motion through this
week, although there are speed differences noted during the first
few days of the forecast period, with the ECMWF faster than the GFS.
The updated NHC forecast is somewhat faster than the previous
prediction at most forecast times, and it generally lies between the
simple consensus (TVCN) and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) aids.
Environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for some
significant intensification of the cyclone later this week. In the
near term, modest strengthening is forecast while the cyclone
becomes better organized and solidifies an inner core. Once this
occurs, the system should be primed to take advantage of conducive
conditions for strengthening. The deep-layer shear is forecast to be
fairly low for the next several days, and the cyclone is forecast to
move within a very moist and diffluent upper-level environment over
very warm SSTs during the next 72-96 h. The rapid intensification
(RI) indices, notably the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS, show a well above
average (60 to 70 percent) chance of a 65-kt intensity increase
during the next 72 h. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to explicitly show RI midweek, and the system is
predicted to peak at major hurricane strength. This forecast lies
between the IVCN/HCCA aids and the higher statistical-dynamical
guidance SHIPS and LGEM. By days 4-5, some weakening is expected
while the system moves over progressively cooler waters.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 12.7N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.6N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.4N 117.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
