Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
...IDALIA LINGERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 85.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida east coast
and the southeastern Georgia coast from Sebastian Inlet northward
to Altamaha Sound.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Altamaha Sound northward to South Santee River South Carolina
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 85.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane
Warning area on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia could become a hurricane at any time, and is forecast to
become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. An observation in Cabo De San Antonio reported a
wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning early Tuesday and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida east coast on
Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast. The tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend by Tuesday night.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,
with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot
over the western part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northwestern quadrant. Radar images from
the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.
Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft
indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength. The maximum
winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.
The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an
initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at
around 7 kt. Idalia should be steered northward along the western
side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to
a trough to its northwest. This track will take the center across
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter. In 2 to 3
days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast
will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to
eastward off the coast of the Carolinas. The official track
forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous
one. This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are
fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the
ECMWF on the right side.
Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate
northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates
that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. This, along with a conducive thermodynamic
atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause
Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame. The
official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system
becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf
coast. This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane
hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other
intensity guidance.
Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible
to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall
intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm
surge event will occur.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.
3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides. Areas of flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be locally significant, are expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of
the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 22.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 33.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0000Z 34.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,
with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot
over the western part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northwestern quadrant. Radar images from
the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.
Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft
indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength. The maximum
winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.
The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an
initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at
around 7 kt. Idalia should be steered northward along the western
side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to
a trough to its northwest. This track will take the center across
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter. In 2 to 3
days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast
will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to
eastward off the coast of the Carolinas. The official track
forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous
one. This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are
fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the
ECMWF on the right side.
Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate
northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates
that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. This, along with a conducive thermodynamic
atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause
Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame. The
official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system
becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf
coast. This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane
hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other
intensity guidance.
Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible
to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall
intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm
surge event will occur.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.
3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides. Areas of flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be locally significant, are expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of
the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 22.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 33.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0000Z 34.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
