Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...FRANKLIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.6N 70.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...FRANKLIN PULLING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.9N 70.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos.
The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
Franklin is pulling away from the Dominican Republic and the Turks
and Caicos, and appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite
images show deep convection increasing near and to the east of the
center, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported that a partial
eyewall was developing on their last pass through the storm. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is based on the earlier reconnaissance
data and is also near the average of the various satellite intensity
estimates.
The tropical storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is being steered
by the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
the central subtropical Atlantic. The ridge is expected to weaken
soon, and that should cause Franklin to turn northeastward and slow
down during the next couple of days. However, beyond that time, the
models show the ridge building back to the west, and the flow
between that feature and a mid- to upper-level trough over the
eastern U.S. should cause Franklin to bend back northward at a
slightly faster pace. The models have shifted a little to the left
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction and takes the system to the west of Bermuda early next
week.
Franklin appears to be on a gradual strengthening trend, and that is
expected to continue through the weekend as the storm remains over
warm waters, in a moist environment, and in generally moderate wind
shear conditions. All of the normally skillful intensity models
bring Franklin to hurricane strength in a few days, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows that theme. This forecast is similar to
the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 21.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 22.6N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 23.2N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 23.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.0N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 24.9N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi