EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The bam models are very close to the coast of Mexico and some even go inland but GFS and Euro move paralell to the coast.

[cycloneye]

Was surprised by the classification although is close to the coast. I thought they would do it of Friday as the TWO's mentioned.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON THURSDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 96.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas and a Tropical Storm Watch north
of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

The system the NHC has been monitoring off of Mexico is starting to
show signs of organization based on geostationary satellite imagery.
An elongated area of low pressure has formed with convection
gradually building over the past several hours. The current
subjective satellite estimate from TAFB give the disturbance a
T-number of 1.5, suggesting that it is close to becoming a tropical
cyclone, but it has not quite become one yet. The initial intensity
is estimated to 25 kt for this advisory.

The disturbance is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue as the system moves along the
southwest periphery of a mid-level trough centered over the
southern United States. At the end of the forecast period, the
system is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level flow.
There is increased uncertainty in this track forecast due to the
uncertainty in the location of where the storm will ultimately
form. A more northern position will likely bring the potential
cyclone closer to Mexican coast. The NHC track forecast is closest
to the simple consensus aid.

The potential tropical cyclone is embedded in an environment
conducive for intensification, with low vertical wind shear and high
mid-level moisture. The system is also over warm sea surface
temperatures of more than 30 degrees C. Model guidance is in fairly
good agreement that the disturbance will become a tropical cyclone
in the next day or so and steadily strengthen over the next few
days. Atmospheric and ocean conditions are expected to become more
hostile day 4 and beyond, likely leading to weakening. The official
intensity forecast is closest to the LGEM model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas, and
tropical storm conditions should begin within this area by Thursday
afternoon.

2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to
localized flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 13.5N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/0000Z 15.4N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.6N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.9N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 20.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 22.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[Astromanía]

Yeah this one is dangerous

[ElectricStorm]

02E TWO 230629 0600 13.7N 97.3W EPAC 30 1006

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on Hurricane Adrian and TD Two-E

WTPZ42 KNHC 290837
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area off the coast of southern Mexico has become better
organized during the past several hours, with convective bands
forming near the center and an outer band in the northern
semicircle near the coast. Based on this, the system is being
designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity is 30 kt in
agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue for the next 3-4 days as the cyclone moves between a
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and Hurricane
Adrian to its west and southwest. After that time, a more westward
motion is expected as the weakening system is steered by Adrian
and a low-level ridge to its northwest. The new NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous track and in good agreement with
the consensus models. However, there is some uncertainty in both
the track and the forward speed, and it is possible the center
could come closer to the coast of Mexico than currently forecast.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening, as the cyclone
should be in an environment of light- to moderate easterly shear
and high mid-level moisture for the next few days. In addition,
the sea surface temperatures are at or above 30C along much of the
forecast track during that time. The various rapid intensification
indices of the SHIPS model show a significant chance of rapid
development during the next 2-3 days, although the system may be too
close to the coast of Mexico to fully take advantage of the
favorable environment. After 72 h, decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause a quick
weakening. The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and is near the intensity consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Punta San Telmo, and
tropical storm conditions should begin within this area by Thursday
afternoon.

2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to
localized flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.0N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.0N 101.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.1N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 18.5N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 19.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 21.0N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 22.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF
OAXACA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 98.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

Southerly monsoonal flow + easterly ML flow is not a good combination for maintaining vertical tilt. I would expect a marginal hurricane here.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward to Manzanillo and has issued a Hurricane Watch from
Lazaro Cardenas northward to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo Mexico




Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

The depression is producing a large area of deep convection off the
southern coast of Mexico, however microwave imagery indicates that
the banding features are still in the process of taking shape.
Dvorak intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt
from SAB, therefore the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this
advisory.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the location of the
depression's center, and the estimated motion (west-northwestward,
or 300/11 kt) is primarily based on extrapolation from the previous
advisory. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a fairly
constant speed is expected during the next 2 days or so while the
system moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and
Hurricane Adrian to its west. During this period, all of the track
guidance moves the system parallel to and within 100 n mi of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, with the typically reliable ECMWF and
HCCA aids, as well as the new HAFS models, leaning on the right
side of the envelope. The NHC track forecast is closest to those
solutions and is very similar to the previous forecast, although it
has been sped up a bit to account for recent model trends. After
48 hours, the cyclone is expected to gradually bend toward the left
and slow down as Adrian weakens and a stronger ridge develops over
the southwestern United States. However, it is not yet clear how
sharp that bend will be, and the system could approach the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula in 3 to 4 days.

The depression appears poised to strengthen in a low-shear and
moist environment and over very warm sea surface temperatures of
30-31 degrees Celsius. In fact, the intensity guidance has become
much more aggressive on this forecast cycle, including an increase
in the chance for rapid intensification. Most of the guidance
shows the cyclone reaching a peak in intensity in 36-48 hours when
it's very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the new
NHC intensity forecast has been increased rather significantly
to hurricane strength during that period compared to the previous
forecast. Even this forecast could be conservative, as several of
the regional hurricane models, as well as the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids, are 5-25 kt higher than the official forecast at 36
hours. A combination of shear, a drier atmosphere, and cooler
waters are expected to lead to weakening after 48 hours, and the
system could be a remnant low by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen quickly and could
become a hurricane by Friday evening, bringing a risk of strong
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the
next couple of days. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the
coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions
are possible in those areas late Friday through Saturday.

2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to
localized flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.6N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 15.4N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 20.5N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 21.4N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 22.1N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 22.5N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Is that an eye feature?

[WacoWx]

I think so. This thing looks to be coming together nicely.

[wxman57]

Is that an eye feature?

https://i.imgur.com/Fn9KT5r.gif

It's not a true eye, just a hole in the clouds. Good chance of an upgrade to Beatriz coming soon, though.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
100 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 99.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo Mexico

[WacoWx]

I think this hole in the clouds is coincidentally in the center of the circulation.

[cycloneye]

Hello Beatriz.

EP, 02, 2023062918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 990W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BEATRIZ, M

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 291811
TCSENP

A. 02E (NONAME)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 14.6N

D. 98.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 AND THE
PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1674508125368381454