ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video update on Lee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlZ1velCrdQ

[Sciencerocks]

lee's appearance is MUCH less impressive compared to January's hurricane that hit east of here. That is just reality....That hurricane had a eye and everything!

[Sciencerocks]

[dukeblue219]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5711/UQbuac.gif

That is not a hurricane. Crazy.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5711/UQbuac.gif

That is not a hurricane. Crazy.

Indeed, structurally it is either subtropical or fully extratropical by now. But as I posted in the Dorain thread years ago getting hit at full speed by a transport truck versus getting hit at full speed by a train matters little to the person who gets hit.

[brad512]

I think if this was OTS it would have been declared post-tropical at the latest at the 5PM, not that extratropical storms can't still pack quite a punch, especially recent transitioned ones.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1702889373253939275

[PavelGaborik10]

Pressure mostly steady, though peak winds seem to be down to around 60 KTS now.

NHC have been pretty generous with Lee, so I'm expecting them to hold him at 65 KTS for another little while.

[cycloneye]

LEE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA, BUT IT IS STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.

[sikkar]

That buoy reported max sustained wind of 40.8 kts , gusting to 58.3 kts. Pressure bottomed at 969.4.
Cam closest to landfall. https://www.novascotiawebcams.com/webca ... cent-beach

[WalterWhite]

Bye, Lee! It was nice knowing you!

Lee appears to have completed its transition to a post-tropical
cyclone. The cloud pattern is comma shaped, and there has been no
significant central deep convection for the past 12 hours or so.
The cyclone is now frontal but likely still has a warm core,
indicating that it is a warm seclusion-type of extratropical
cyclone. Despite this transition, it remains a potent cyclone, and
the initial intensity remains 70 kt since the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters measured SFMR winds as high as 66 kt about 110 n
mi southwest of the center.

[tolakram]

Sat views as Lee comes ashore

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Maine-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Brunswick-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

GOES image viewer: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL132023#homePageLink

[wxman57]

Plane is finding that there may be some 50 kt max wind, nothing more. Strongest wind observation I can find at present is in Halifax, about 175 miles from the center. Wind gusts to 48 kts at present, but were as high as 57 kts. Not even any 25 mph sustained in Boston. Some gusts to TS strength in Cape Cod, but no sustained 34kt+ wind.

[sikkar]

looks like center is still heading due north and not turning right as it's supposed to by now?

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

looks like center is still heading due north and not turning right as it's supposed to by now?

Yep, it's missing the tip of Nova Scotia. Nothing really associated with the center, though. Strongest winds are over 100 miles east. "Landfall" looks like near the border of Maine and New Brunswick. However, it could make that expected right turn at any point now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

[PavelGaborik10]

I too am confused with the NHC insisting on keeping this at 65 KTS.

Can't find anything that justifies anywhere near that intensitly, finds were roughly double in Fiona.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

This image speaks volumes on how proficient the NHC has become at track forecasting:



With the advent of quantum computing, I believe their intensity forecasting will become just as accurate in about 15 to 20 years' time.

[wxman57]

I, too, am confused with the NHC insisting on keeping this at 65 KTS.

Can't find anything that justifies anywhere near that intensity, winds were roughly double in Fiona.

The NHC's primary goal is to keep people safe. To do that, they tend to be very cautious when a storm is approaching the coast. If they lower their wind estimate, then the public might ignore warnings and put themselves in harm's way. I know most of the forecasters there. They're good meteorologists. Of course, there is a problem with being so cautious. The next time a real hurricane approaches the same area, the public will think it's no big deal an they may not heed the warnings.

As a private meteorologist, the only internal requirements that we have is to not disagree with the NHC's classification. If they're calling it a hurricane, we must do so, too. However, we can tell customers what the winds really are in our discussion and in our site forecasts. We tried calling such a storm as Lee a tropical storm way back, when the NHC was calling whatever the storm was a hurricane. That did not go over well with our clients. How can you call it a TS when the NHC calls it a hurricane, they'd say. So, we call it a hurricane, say it's not really a hurricane, and adjust our forecasts so as not to forecast such high winds.