WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

I just grabbed this one (looks like a ships report) from TYBBS forum (posted by Majin buu). The ship is most likely anchored in Port San Vicente.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1683871314703007744

[Hayabusa]

17z 976.5 mb, 35kts ws, 38kts gust

98232 41555 81818 10260 20252 39762 49765 5//// 76366 8452/ 333 56690 84620 88457=QNT 20MPS TP/KV/AP

[cycloneye]

WP, 05, 2023072518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1216E, 120, 936, TY

[Hayabusa]

17z 976.5 mb, 35kts ws, 38kts gust

98232 41555 81818 10260 20252 39762 49765 5//// 76366 8452/ 333 56690 84620 88457=QNT 20MPS TP/KV/AP

19z 973.2 mb, 33kts ws, 42kts gust, still no data from Calayan due to power outage...

98232 41565 81817 10257 20248 39729 49732 5//// 76366 8452/ 333 56690 84620 88457=QNT 22MPS A/KV/TP

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1683910039436926977

[doomhaMwx]

Long-range radar from CWB showing the eye currently right over Fuga Island. Aparri AWS to the south recorded a pressure of 972.2 mb at an elevation of 3.7 meters as of 19:30Z.


 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1683925722665209856

[Hayabusa]

Doksuri has travelled more westward than the agencies forecast, its southern eyewall looks like is already touching Luzon island

[cycloneye]

Doing a loop to northern Luzón.

[Hayabusa]

20z 971.5mb, 38kts ws, 50kts gust

98232 41455 81520 20250 39712 49715 5//// 76566 8452/ 333 56690 84620 88457=QNT 26MPS TP/KV/AP

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.0N 121.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 223 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG,
TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY
INTENSE SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO SUSTAIN A HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL,
SHARPLY-OUTLINED 24-NM EYE AS IT TRACKED ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY IN THE LUZON STRAIT, PHILIPPINES. RAIN BANDS REMAIN
EXPANSIVE TRAILING ALL THE WAY TO PALAWAN ISLAND. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS JUST UNDERGONE AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC); HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 100 KTS AT 251700Z
CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 251730Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 109 KTS AT 251800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN,
CHINA JUST AFTER TAU 48. TY 05W WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
ERC AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND TAIWAN.
BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 75KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 237NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1683931497131307012

[Hayabusa]

22z 58kts gusts highest so far, pressure has risen a little bit

98232 41555 81820 10255 20243 39715 49718 5//// 76366 8452/ 333 56690 84620 88457=QNT 30MPS TP/KV/AP

[Hayabusa]

22z 58kts gusts highest so far, pressure has risen a little bit

98232 41555 81820 10255 20243 39715 49718 5//// 76366 8452/ 333 56690 84620 88457=QNT 30MPS TP/KV/AP

23z new high,46kts ws, 68kts gust

SNPH20 RPUA 252300
AAXX 25231
98232 41460 81824 10248 20240 39745 49748 5//// 76566 8452/ 33302 56490 84618 88457= QNT 35 MPS CM/AP/TP

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

It has basically stalled over the Babuyan Islands and could be preparing to make a sharp turn towards SE China. TCs usually slow/stall when they meet a break in the STR before accelerating poleward. Unfortunately, this is currently occurring at the worst time/place possible.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.9N 121.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 238 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG,
TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT UNDERWENT EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE EYEWALL HAS SHRUNK TO LESS THAN
10NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PINHOLE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 252346Z GPM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
LAND INTERACTION AND ERC PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE LOW VWS, WARM SST
AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 260000Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 105 KTS AT 260000Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 107 KTS AT 252341Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN,
CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 48. TY 05W WILL NOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
THE ERC AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND TAIWAN.
BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 216NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

The eye of is passing over Dalupiri Island (westernmost of the Babuyan Islands) as it resumes on a NW movement.



 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1684036328412045313

[1900hurricane]

There has to be some unreal rain over N Luzon right now.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 121.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 422 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION NEAR FUGA
ISLAND (NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE), TYPHOON (TY) 05W HAS
RESUMED A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
DALUPIRI ISLAND. TY 05W WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS QS PHASE
AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE RUGGED NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON AS
INDICATED IN THE 251000Z AND 252155Z RCM-3 SAR BULLSEYE IMAGES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS NO LONGER ANY EVIDENCE OF THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH HAD COMMENCED ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 10NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 260447Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. OVERALL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, RCTP AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE 260600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 104
KNOTS AND THE 260600Z D-PRINT ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT RCM-3 SAR DATA AS WELL
AS A PARTIAL 260153Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REFLECTING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
REGION OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE LUZON STRAIT AND ALONG BOTH THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF LUZON.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 260530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED
HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACKS AND
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PAST
SOUTHERN TAIWAN INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM,
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 PLUS KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AS TY 05W APPROACHES TAIWAN. AS TY 05W TRACKS AWAY
FROM NORTHERN LUZON, THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCLUDING HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WHICH WILL
LIKELY AID IN A BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH TAIWAN. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU
36, TY DOKSURI WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR DEEP INTO CHINA WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS; THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 IS NOW
90NM LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES OVERLAND THEREFORE OVERALL
TRACK CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PHASE TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS BUT THIS
PEAK IS OBVIOUSLY TIED TO THE HOW LOW THE DIP GOES; SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE 260000Z COAMPS ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INDICATES A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 6 TO TAU 36 SUPPORTING
JTWC'S MODEST REINTENSIFICATION PHASE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN