ATL: NIGEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1703884958865993791

[WalterWhite]

I still think this will become a major hurricane. The NHC forecast and model guidance has fluctuated wildly, but given the SSTs, this could fairly easily become a major hurricane.

[ElectricStorm]

I still think this will become a major hurricane. The NHC forecast and model guidance has fluctuated wildly, but given the SSTs, this could fairly easily become a major hurricane.

NHC forecast has not been fluctuating wildly

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I still think this will become a major hurricane. The NHC forecast and model guidance has fluctuated wildly, but given the SSTs, this could fairly easily become a major hurricane.

NHC forecast has not been fluctuating wildly

This has been one of the least accurately forecasted storms in recent years.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1703916749421166641

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1703916749421166641

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1703926483683541383

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kt.

AL, 15, 2023091900, , BEST, 0, 282N, 524W, 75, 979, HU

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

And I thought Margot struggled with maintaining deep convection… something is gonna have to change if this going to reach major status. Guessing trough interaction will make the environment more favorable for a time tomorrow before it ultimately shears Nigel out?

[Teban54]

At least the eye managed to pop up, so... Yay?

[ElectricStorm]

Oh yikes, yeah that's not gonna get it done. Has about 24 more hours or so of decent conditions but becoming a major at this point is likely a long shot, and honestly it may have already peaked.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Nigel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vE4olZwFIg

[Yellow Evan]

Structure does not favor any further intensification.

[MarioProtVI]

I don’t know what’s worse, NHC being extremely bullish with Lee as Cat 5 only for it to get sheared not even 12 hours later or the fact they predicted a major with Nigel only for it to literally become a worse version of Earl from last year. Either way, the chances of this becoming a major are now zero, and even C2 is pretty much out of the question with that structure.

[galaxy401]

I don’t know what’s worse, NHC being extremely bullish with Lee as Cat 5 only for it to get sheared not even 12 hours later or the fact they predicted a major with Nigel only for it to literally become a worse version of Earl from last year. Either way, the chances of this becoming a major are now zero, and even C2 is pretty much out of the question with that structure.

At least Lee actually attained Cat 5 even if it was brief.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Nigel definitely has a unique appearance this morning. Massive eye surrounded by a pretty thin band of convection. Looks like a donut or a low-profile tire. It's like an annular hurricane if you bought it from Temu.

[aspen]

I don’t know what’s worse, NHC being extremely bullish with Lee as Cat 5 only for it to get sheared not even 12 hours later or the fact they predicted a major with Nigel only for it to literally become a worse version of Earl from last year. Either way, the chances of this becoming a major are now zero, and even C2 is pretty much out of the question with that structure.

To be fair, none of the models — not even the hurricane models — forecast that never-ending increase in shear before it happened. GCANE was the only one who noticed it before it struck. If the shear held off for even just 6-12 hours, we likely would’ve seen that 155 kt forecast peak verify.

Nigel though….yeah the NHC was way too aggressive. While some models did support MH intensity, the hurricanes models even then were showing this large eye structure that would’ve prevented RI, just like we’re seeing now. The dry air wasn’t super well forecast, but that structure was enough to cast doubt on a 100-105 kt peak.

[Teban54]

[abajan]

No further intensification as yet:

AL, 15, 2023091912, , BEST, 0, 299N, 539W, 75, 979, HU