Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west-central Mexico.
Microwave images from a few hours ago indicated that the hurricane
has developed a well-defined inner core with an eyewall that is
nearly closed. Although an eye is not present in geostationary
satellite images, the central dense overcast has become more
circular during the last few hours. The Dvorak estimates have
increased and now range from 77 to 90 kt, and based on that data and
the improvement in the system's organization, the initial intensity
is increased to 85 kt. This increase in wind speed makes Lidia a
category 2 hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in route
to investigate Lidia this afternoon, and will provide a better
estimate of the hurricane's intensity. The outer rain bands of
Lidia are nearing Isla Las Marias and west-central Mexico, and
conditions are expected to worsen in that region through the day.
Lidia is accelerating to the east-northeast, and the latest initial
motion is 070/13 kt. The mid- to upper-level trough just to the
west of the hurricane will steer it quickly toward west-central
Mexico and the center should make landfall this evening. However,
as noted above, weather conditions will deteriorate well before
then since most of the strong winds are east of the center. The
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one and
near the various consensus aids.
Additional strengthening is expected due to a combination of very
warm SSTs near 30 C and a favorable upper-level wind pattern.
Lidia will likely be near major hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the
hurricane regional models, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON. Rapid
weakening is expected once Lidia moves inland, and the hurricane is
expected to dissipate by late Wednesday over the rugged terrain of
central Mexico.
Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward.
Key Messages:
1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches
west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 19.2N 107.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west-central Mexico.
Microwave images from a few hours ago indicated that the hurricane
has developed a well-defined inner core with an eyewall that is
nearly closed. Although an eye is not present in geostationary
satellite images, the central dense overcast has become more
circular during the last few hours. The Dvorak estimates have
increased and now range from 77 to 90 kt, and based on that data and
the improvement in the system's organization, the initial intensity
is increased to 85 kt. This increase in wind speed makes Lidia a
category 2 hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in route
to investigate Lidia this afternoon, and will provide a better
estimate of the hurricane's intensity. The outer rain bands of
Lidia are nearing Isla Las Marias and west-central Mexico, and
conditions are expected to worsen in that region through the day.
Lidia is accelerating to the east-northeast, and the latest initial
motion is 070/13 kt. The mid- to upper-level trough just to the
west of the hurricane will steer it quickly toward west-central
Mexico and the center should make landfall this evening. However,
as noted above, weather conditions will deteriorate well before
then since most of the strong winds are east of the center. The
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one and
near the various consensus aids.
Additional strengthening is expected due to a combination of very
warm SSTs near 30 C and a favorable upper-level wind pattern.
Lidia will likely be near major hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the
hurricane regional models, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON. Rapid
weakening is expected once Lidia moves inland, and the hurricane is
expected to dissipate by late Wednesday over the rugged terrain of
central Mexico.
Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward.
Key Messages:
1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches
west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 19.2N 107.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
