ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Around 50kt FL and several 40kt+ SFMR. Should be Harold soon

[ElectricStorm]

Yep right on cue

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[REDHurricane]

Good thing Harold is going to run out of time, looks like it's finally starting to get itself together a bit

[Hammy]

Crazy thing to think about with this is that we've doubled the name count in less than 48 hours

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind observations indicate that the
cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm earlier this morning.
However, the circulation is not very well defined and the low-level
center is somewhat elongated from south to north. Imagery from the
Brownsville WSR-88D radar shows broad cyclonic turning, with curved
rain bands moving onshore of the south Texas coast.

Harold is embedded in strong deep-layer easterlies on the southern
periphery of a large anticyclone over the east-central United
States. As a result, the cyclone is moving fairly briskly toward
the west-northwest at around 285/16 kt. This general motion should
continue through tonight, and the official forecast is quite
similar to the previous one. This is also very close to the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA prediction.

The system still has a short time to strengthen over the warm Gulf
waters, and the latest SHIPS guidance shows slight strengthening
within the next 12 hours. This is reflected in the official
forecast. Since the cyclone does not have a well-defined inner
core, however, rapid intensification is not likely before landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold is expected across
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
today through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area,and
are possible in the watch area, within a few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 25.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 26.5N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 27.8N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[aspen]

Harold is just a Bargain Bin Harvey.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATER
THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE WARNING
AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[TallyTracker]

Low-level center clearly visible on radar now. Looks like it’s gonna come in just south of Corpus Christi. Based on the trends I think Harold will be about 50 mph at landfall around 10 am.

[tolakram]

COD Source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-comp_radar-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[REDHurricane]

This is one of the rare instances where all four of GFS/ECMWF/CMC/ICON nailed the forecast five-plus days in advance, good job science

[NDG]

Harold is a Wasp on visible this morning, very strange looking storm.

[toad strangler]

Corpus Christi area in for some big rains

[jaguars_22]

Very odd looking! Looks to be coming inland near corpus north of the track…

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TimPandajisKHOU/status/1693981844981903601

[galvestontx]

So far just a normal windy rainy day in port aransas.

[Iceresistance]

Stronger now

Tropical Storm Harold Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
900 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD STRENGTHENS AND REFORMS TO THE NORTH...

Radar images and surface observations indicate that the center of
Harold has reformed to the north of the previous estimated position
and has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds are now
estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[SoupBone]

Corpus Christi area in for some big rains

Everything that gets near the coast (Galveston to Houston) dries up. We're missing the rain it looks like.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1693989043615461728

[TallyTracker]

The structure on radar makes me think it may be 60-65 mph now. 6 more hours and this would have been a hurricane.