ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Ah yes, a 35/1009 TS with an eyewall.

[zzzh]

ASCAT around 13z shows wind were 30-35kt. Shear is expected to increase significantly in 12h.

[CrazyC83]

ASCAT around 13z shows wind were 30-35kt. Shear is expected to increase significantly in 12h.

ASCAT has a low resolution and can underestimate things with small storms.

[zzzh]

ASCAT around 13z shows wind were 30-35kt. Shear is expected to increase significantly in 12h.

ASCAT has a low resolution and can underestimate things with small storms.

undersampling typically happens when winds are greater than 38kt. ASCAT is fairly accurate if winds are lower than that.

[Sciencerocks]

With the microwave suggesting a borderline hurricane with a closed eye this is being under sampled.

[Landy]

Latest microwave, 2-in-1 pass.

[Landy]

Convection appears to be attempting to wrap to me at least.

[SconnieCane]

Convection appears to be attempting to wrap to me at least.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1146893642162770010/goes16_ir_11L_202308311625.gif

Jose and Gert, the Tiny Twins.

[Landy]

I really really fail to see how this isn't organization, and thus intensification, of any sort.

[Hurricane2022]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

The cloud pattern of Jose has changed little since earlier today.
Banding features are limited, and the convection near the center
is not very deep at this time. The upper-level outflow is being
impeded over the western portion of the circulation, suggestive
of northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
T-number from TAFB.

Latest center fixes indicate that the system is moving northward
with increasing forward speed. The current motion estimate is
360/10 kt. During the next 12 to 24 hours Jose should continue to
move generally northward, with a continued increase in forward
speed, along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, Then,
the cyclone is likely to become entrained into the eastern portion
of the larger circulation of Franklin. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the
global model solutions.

Given the influence of nearby Franklin on both the low-level
circulation and the upper-level outflow, Jose is not likely to
strengthen significantly during the next day or so. The official
forecast, like the previous one, shows the system dissipating after
24 hours since it is expected to be absorbed by Franklin by then.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 30.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 33.1N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 37.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Dr. Richard Pasch completely ignored all microwave passes that showed an eye on Jose.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kt.

AL, 11, 2023090100, , BEST, 0, 320N, 525W, 45, 1002, TS

[WalterWhite]

Up to 45kt.

AL, 11, 2023090100, , BEST, 0, 320N, 525W, 45, 1002, TS

I hope the advisories reflect this.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

Jose continues to have a teeny-tiny core.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1697432486396284962



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1697433818448191590

[cycloneye]

From discussion:

geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

[Hurricane2022]

From discussion:

geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Again they missed to mention something...

[AnnularCane]

Up to 45kt.

AL, 11, 2023090100, , BEST, 0, 320N, 525W, 45, 1002, TS

I hope the advisories reflect this.

Oh, they certainly do.

[Landy]

From discussion:

geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Again they missed to mention something...

NHC rarely uses SAR fwiw.