WPAC: INVEST 92W

[Hayabusa]

92W.INVEST

92W INVEST 230923 0600 15.9N 150.4E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240800Z-250600ZSEP2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZSEP2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.9N 113.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
240617Z 88.2 GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (30-31 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240800) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N
147.3E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SHALLOW FORMATIVE BANDING AND ISOLATED ELEMENTS OF FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92W
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 C) SST OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2)//
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