WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 24.0N 118.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RISING OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS CONFIRM TYPHOON DOKSURI IS MAKING AN 11TH
HOUR SURGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH
CERTAINTY BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 272330Z GMI 37H IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON A CIMSS D-PRINT
ASSESSMENT OF 95KTS ALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM
JTWC AND THE JMA. SATCON HAS ALSO CLIMBED TO 92 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR QUANZHOU CHINA DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR
TOPOGRAPHY.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 272330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-32 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SPECTACULAR
DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARMING NEAR-SHORE SEA WATERS INDUCED BY
DOWNWELLING AHEAD OF THE STORM, TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IT
WILL THEN DECAY RAPIDLY ON ITS OVERLAND TRACK AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REGENERATE OVER THE GULF OF BOHAI.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTSTANDING THROUGH THE
LIFECYCLE OF THE STORM AND IS UNANIMOUS IN THE STEEP DECLINE IN
INTENSITY AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND SCENARIO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 24.0N 118.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RISING OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS CONFIRM TYPHOON DOKSURI IS MAKING AN 11TH
HOUR SURGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH
CERTAINTY BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 272330Z GMI 37H IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON A CIMSS D-PRINT
ASSESSMENT OF 95KTS ALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM
JTWC AND THE JMA. SATCON HAS ALSO CLIMBED TO 92 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR QUANZHOU CHINA DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR
TOPOGRAPHY.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 272330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-32 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SPECTACULAR
DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARMING NEAR-SHORE SEA WATERS INDUCED BY
DOWNWELLING AHEAD OF THE STORM, TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IT
WILL THEN DECAY RAPIDLY ON ITS OVERLAND TRACK AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REGENERATE OVER THE GULF OF BOHAI.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTSTANDING THROUGH THE
LIFECYCLE OF THE STORM AND IS UNANIMOUS IN THE STEEP DECLINE IN
INTENSITY AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND SCENARIO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
