WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 230902 0000 16.7N 137.8E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZSEP2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030153ZSEP2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152ZSEP2023//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZSEP2023//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03SEP23 0000Z, TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.6N 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 03SEP23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (SAOLA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.4N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 03SEP23 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (KIROGI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 659 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.6N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A LARGE BAND OF OVER HEAD CONVECTION DRIVING
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE BUILDING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATED 96W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VWS (20-30KTS), DUAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD, WITH NEGLIGIBLE INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 48 HOURS, AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.