ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
An area of low pressure more than 1000 miles miles northeast of the
Leeward Islands (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily)
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development by tomorrow, and
this system is likely to regenerate into a tropical depression or
tropical storm late this week or this weekend when the system moves
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. For additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development by tomorrow, and this system is likely to regenerate
into a tropical storm by Friday while the system moves northward
over the subtropical central Atlantic. For additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Low cloud motion over the last few hours, it looks like the vort max got sucked into the convection where a more definite LLC is trying to form

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) continues
to produce a large but elongated area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development today, and this system is likely to regenerate into a
tropical storm over the next couple of days as the system moves
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend,
the system is anticipated to merge with a frontal boundary north of
the Gulf Stream. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 302N, 484W, 35, 1008, DB

[Iceresistance]

AL, 07, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 302N, 484W, 35, 1008, DB

Does "DB" mean the Emily is now a (Sub?)Tropical Depression again?

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 302N, 484W, 35, 1008, DB

Does "DB" mean the Emily is now a (Sub?)Tropical Depression again?

It means Disturbance.

[Iceresistance]

AL, 07, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 302N, 484W, 35, 1008, DB

Does "DB" mean the Emily is now a (Sub?)Tropical Depression again?

It means Disturbance.

Ah, thanks. I wasn't sure what it meant

[Extratropical94]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is
producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Recently received satellite wind data suggests that
the system has lost organization from yesterday, but a tropical
depression or storm could still form as it moves northward over the
subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is
expected to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf
Stream. For additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located about 950 miles east of Bermuda
(the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system could still become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
during the next day or so before it reaches colder waters and merges
with a frontal boundary. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

The final straw.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
Satellite imagery indicates the remnants of former Tropical Storm
Emily have become absorbed by an elongated area of low pressure
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions while this system merges with a nearby frontal boundary
over the north central Atlantic during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.