ATL: MARTIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I always like making it to the M name for some reason.
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Martin’s first advisory calls for a 70 kt peak before turning into a 75 kt extratropical low. There’s a chance we could have Hurricanes Lisa and Martin active at the same time. Has there ever been a November with two simultaneously active hurricanes?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Buck wrote:I always like making it to the M name for some reason.
13th named storm of the season...of course, black cats, the Jersey Devil, and Jason Vorrhees would be happy
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
weeniepatrol wrote:For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
One weirdo season...
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LemieT wrote:weeniepatrol wrote:For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
One weirdo season...
La Nina years tend to have a lot of late season activity.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
weeniepatrol wrote:For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
It's amazing how hurricanes the last 10 years will struggle at 15-20N in the "MDR", but absolutely flourish in the middle of the Atlantic near 40N even in November.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:weeniepatrol wrote:For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
It's amazing how hurricanes the last 10 years will struggle at 15-20N in the "MDR", but absolutely flourish in the middle of the Atlantic near 40N even in November.
Makes me wonder if there's a need to distinguish Main Development Region from Main Intensification Region lol.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Finally a storm expected to become a hurricane without plowing into land somewhere. Seems to be a rare occurrence this season.
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Boomer Sooner!
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ElectricStorm wrote:Finally a storm expected to become a hurricane without plowing into land somewhere. Seems to be a rare occurrence this season.
Danielle and Earl.
Earl may have given Bermuda a scare, though.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Teban54 wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:Finally a storm expected to become a hurricane without plowing into land somewhere. Seems to be a rare occurrence this season.
Danielle and Earl.
Earl may have given Bermuda a scare, though.
Danielle's really the only one that didn't threaten land at some point
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The 12z HWRF shows Martin peaking in the mid-960s with winds around 75-85 kt before post-tropical transition, which seems to be around 06z-12z Thursday morning.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Teban54 wrote:Makes me wonder if there's a need to distinguish Main Development Region from Main Intensification Region lol.
The Martin Development Region, if you will
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Martin’s first advisory calls for a 70 kt peak before turning into a 75 kt extratropical low. There’s a chance we could have Hurricanes Lisa and Martin active at the same time. Has there ever been a November with two simultaneously active hurricanes?
2001 had Michelle and Noel on November 5, though I can't think of any seasons outside of that
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hammy wrote:aspen wrote:Martin’s first advisory calls for a 70 kt peak before turning into a 75 kt extratropical low. There’s a chance we could have Hurricanes Lisa and Martin active at the same time. Has there ever been a November with two simultaneously active hurricanes?
2001 had Michelle and Noel on November 5, though I can't think of any seasons outside of that
Klotzbach made a tweet earlier today regarding this. 1932 also saw two concurrent November hurricanes being the Cuba hurricane and Storm 15. So 2022 would be the third occurrence if it comes to pass.
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
There he goes... popping owffff with that deep convection.
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