NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF JAMAICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.3W
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 73.6W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
...ADVISORIES INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 73.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island of Jamaica.
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Grand Cayman Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings will likely be required early this week.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 73.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue over the next several days with a gradual turn to the
west by Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and it could be
near hurricane intensity by Tuesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning late Monday and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Through Wednesday afternoon, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern
Nicaragua, and Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches
with local amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of
rainfall could lead to flash flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
This morning we were fortunate to have concurrent NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter missions, which provided a wealth of
flight-level, Tail Doppler Radar, and dropsonde data over the system
in the central Caribbean Sea. The data indicated that a
well-defined, while somewhat broad, circulation had formed with a
minimum pressure of 1005 mb. A combination of SFMR winds and surface
dropsonde data also suggested that the system had 35-kt winds in its
northern semicircle. With that said, the satellite presentation of
the system currently lacks sufficient convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone. However, given the well-defined
center and tropical-storm-force winds, there is significant risk for
tropical storm conditions in the near future in portions of Jamaica
and Grand Cayman Island. With the expectation that this system will
likely become a tropical storm soon, advisories have been initiated
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen.
The estimated motion of the disturbance is off to the west-northwest
at 290/9 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the
next day or so, as an expansive mid-level ridge is currently
centered north of the system and expected to move westward with
the cyclone. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge may
nose further westward as a deep-layer trough becomes established
well to the the northeast, which could result in a south of due
west motion when the system approaches the coast of
Belize. Landfall is expected between the 72- and 96-hour forecast
points. The initial NHC track forecast is roughly a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, which is also quite close to
the HCCA and TCVA consensus aids.
Based on the current structure, it may take a bit longer for the
convection to become sufficently organized to allow the formation of
a tropical cyclone, but this is forecast to occur at some point
tonight, likely during the typical diurnal maximum. After deep
convection become better established, environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for further intensification, especially in
the 24-48 hour period when the vertical wind shear is expected to be
lowest (5-15 kt) as the system traverses 29-30 C sea-surface
temperatures. Mid-level relative humidity is quite low (55-60
percent), but given the relatively low shear, this may act to keep
the system's structure small with a constricted radius of maximum
winds. The initial intensity forecast after 24 hours closely follows
the latest HCCA and ICON intensity guidance, making the system a
Category 1 hurricane in 60-72 hours. The system should weaken
quickly over land and is forecast to dissipate before day 5.
Based on the latest forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued
a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica, and the government in the
Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grand Cayman
Island.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.
2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required early this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi