WPAC: LUPIT - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

90W.INVEST

90W.INVEST.15kts.997mb.20.7N.110.4E

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA AT 21N 110E EAST SLOWLY.

[doomhaMwx]

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 021200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC
00HR 20.8N 111.9E 996HPA 12M/S
MOVE E 7KM/H
P+12HR 20.8N 112.7E 996HPA 12M/S
P+24HR 20.8N 113.5E 992HPA 15M/S
P+36HR 21.0N 114.5E 990HPA 18M/S
P+48HR 21.8N 116.1E 985HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 23.0N 117.2E 985HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 24.5N 118.8E 988HPA 20M/S
P+96HR 27.2N 123.3E 985HPA 23M/S
P+120HR 28.6N 126.4E 985HPA 23M/S=
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Warning
Bulletin issued at 21:45 HKT 02/Aug/2021

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 was issued at 9:40 p.m.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 10 p.m., the tropical depression over the northern part of the South China Sea was estimated to be about 270 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong (near 20.9 degrees north 112.0 degrees east) and is forecast to move east at about 12 kilometres per hour across the coastal waters of Guangdong.

The circulation of the tropical depression is rather small. The associated strong winds will keep a distance from Hong Kong tonight (2 August) and tomorrow morning. According to the present forecast, the Standby Signal, No. 1 will remain in force overnight and tomorrow morning. Under the influence of the outer rainbands of the tropical depression, there will be occasional showers and squalls in the territory in the next few days. There will also be swells.

[Hayabusa]

[wxman57]

https://i.imgur.com/z16WBaG.png


https://i.imgur.com/ai7oLdA.png

Tropical Cyclone Warning
Bulletin issued at 21:45 HKT 02/Aug/2021

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 was issued at 9:40 p.m.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 10 p.m., the tropical depression over the northern part of the South China Sea was estimated to be about 270 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong (near 20.9 degrees north 112.0 degrees east) and is forecast to move east at about 12 kilometres per hour across the coastal waters of Guangdong.

The circulation of the tropical depression is rather small. The associated strong winds will keep a distance from Hong Kong tonight (2 August) and tomorrow morning. According to the present forecast, the Standby Signal, No. 1 will remain in force overnight and tomorrow morning. Under the influence of the outer rainbands of the tropical depression, there will be occasional showers and squalls in the territory in the next few days. There will also be swells.

I've looked all over China's website but cannot find information on TCs. What's the link that you used for the track graphics & text?

[doomhaMwx]

I've looked all over China's website but cannot find information on TCs. What's the link that you used for the track graphics & text?

http://eng.nmc.cn/typhoon/publish/typho ... -img1.html

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 113.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 98 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR, WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 021804Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ORIENTS EAST OF TAIWAN. TD 13W CURRENTLY SITS
ON THE EDGE OF A BORDERLINE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEAR AND DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO BE BUOYED BY
SUSTAINED WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREE CELSIUS) AS IT
SLIPS THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
45KTS AT TAU 36 AS SHEAR DECREASES SLIGHTLY. AFTERWARDS, TD 13W
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK OF TD 13W IS CURRENTLY PLACED NEAR
CONSENSUS AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR HWRF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Tropical Cyclonea
Issued at 2021/08/03 01:05 UTC
Analisys at 08/03 00 UTC
Category TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N21°30′(21.5°)
E113°20′(113.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Forecast at 08/04 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N22°0′(22.0°)
E114°40′(114.7°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
Forecast at 08/05 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N22°40′(22.7°)
E115°55′(115.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Forecast at 08/06 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E117°0′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Forecast at 08/07 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E119°25′(119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
Forecast at 08/08 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N27°50′(27.8°)
E122°5′(122.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(390NM)

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

[Sciencerocks]

[Nancy Smar]

Analysis Time: Aug. 04th 00 UTC
Name of TC: LUPIT
Num. of TC: 2109
Current Location: 21.1°N 115.4°E
2-min. Average Max. Wind Speed: 18m/s（64.8km/h）
Central Pressure: 990hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 60km SE 100km SW 100km NW 60km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs LUPIT will moving NE at speed of 13km/h
Initial Report

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2109 LUPIT (2109) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 21.4N 115.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH

[doomhaMwx]

13W THIRTEEN 210804 0000 21.3N 115.6E WPAC 35 995

Latest ASCAT pass found winds of at least 40kts near the center.

[Hayabusa]

Double trouble for Japan if the EC verifies.

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

In contrast...