ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Models

[Subtrop]

Only model runs here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not a good sign when your only friend for a long-term future is the CMC.

Probably a quick spinup TD/TS Danny, but nothing more.

[aspen]

Not a good sign when your only friend for a long-term future is the CMC.

Probably a quick spinup TD/TS Danny, but nothing more.

Key word: long-term. We’ll need to see what 95L does in the next 48 hours, and if it consolidates further south than most of the globals are showing, then it has the potential to survive for longer by being within warmer SSTs and out of the way of SAL. The HWRF might be able to shed some light on its near-term structural future.

[AutoPenalti]

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/K74EHT3.png
https://i.imgur.com/MeyMTs4.png

Yes NNIC there WILL be another Hurricane Ivan in June

[aspen]

12z GFS isn’t thrilled and keeps this as an open wave. However, 95L stays south and barely gets north of 10N, so if it does take this track, it could have a better shot of development.

[Ubuntwo]

12z GFS isn’t thrilled and keeps this as an open wave. However, 95L stays south and barely gets north of 10N, so if it does take this track, it could have a better shot of development.

Gets flung maybe a degree too far north during the formative phase. There is very little margin here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1408094394838884357

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1408094394838884357

Sort of explains why models are behaving erratically.

[aspen]

12z GFS isn’t thrilled and keeps this as an open wave. However, 95L stays south and barely gets north of 10N, so if it does take this track, it could have a better shot of development.

Gets flung maybe a degree too far north during the formative phase. There is very little margin here.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/857654572716654602/gfs_z850_vort_eatl_fh48_trend.gif

The wave remains intact all the way until landfall in Belize on July 4th, though, so there is a possibility it can find a better environment way down the road.

[Fego]

12z GFS isn’t thrilled and keeps this as an open wave. However, 95L stays south and barely gets north of 10N, so if it does take this track, it could have a better shot of development.

Gets flung maybe a degree too far north during the formative phase. There is very little margin here.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/857654572716654602/gfs_z850_vort_eatl_fh48_trend.gif

Same scenario brought by the ECMWF 00z. Looks like a degree to the north could be the difference between a strong wave and a tc.

[Yellow Evan]

Keep in mind that global models are notorious for dropping waves as soon as they leave Africa.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1408128675564998657

[Stormybajan]

Wow. None of the models are developing this anymore after clutching us in yesterday, soo either the environment down the road has changed to a more hostile one or we are playing the off and on game right now

[AutoPenalti]

Wow. None of the models are developing this anymore after clutching us in yesterday, soo either the environment down the road has changed to a more hostile one or we are playing the off and on game right now

Again, this is a very sensitive forecast. As mentioned earlier, if this moves further north it will most likely encounter lower SSTs and dry air. If it continues south of model guidance, it will most likely be protected underneath the SAL.

[facemane]

Wow. None of the models are developing this anymore after clutching us in yesterday, soo either the environment down the road has changed to a more hostile one or we are playing the off and on game right now

Again, this is a very sensitive forecast. As mentioned earlier, if this moves further north it will most likely encounter lower SSTs and dry air. If it continues south of model guidance, it will most likely be protected underneath the SAL.

What concerns me is we are talking about a tropical wave off Africa in June. We usually don't see this until August.

[Stormybajan]

Any reason why neither HWRF or HMON are running for 95L?

[aspen]

Classic global model runs. Showing development until it becomes an invest, then refusing to even barely close off the disturbance.

[Deshaunrob17]

Honestly, I'm not surprise that the Euro and Eps we're too excited with 95L. This is a very similar situation to Isaias. They did do a great job on picking up Isaias, but they were too excited. If memory serves me right, the GEFS lead the way last year with cyclone activity in the Atlantic. However, as always, lets keep watching - meteorology vs modelogy

[Fego]

For what it worth, UKMET 12z.