ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

For Tropical Wave.

AL, 94, 2021061418, , BEST, 0, 80N, 220W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, al762021 to al942021,

[AutoPenalti]

For Tropical Wave.

AL, 94, 2021061418, , BEST, 0, 80N, 220W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, al762021 to al942021,

Hoo boy, this is going to get very busy.

[FixySLN]

Good to see some familiar faces again, hope ya'll had a great and safe off-season.

One words comes to mind here. "Fish". Hoping to see more fish than amphibs this season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting seeing such a robust invest south of the Cape Verde islands on June 14th. Many active Cape Verde seasons had an active, early-season wave train.

[aspen]

If 94L develops and attains TS status, even for a bit, it will be a massive sign of activity for the rest of the season. As I posted in the seasonal indicators thread, the presence of at least one AEW-based system (either in the MDR or further west) in July usually correlates to an active Atlantic hurricane season. A MDR storm in mid-June is even more of a sign that conditions will be very favorable later on. The current record holder for the earliest named MDR storm is Bret on June 19th, 2017; that season had an exceptionally active MDR with three storms exceeding 130 kt, including 155 kt and 64.9 ACE Irma. That doesn’t mean 2021 is going to be a 2017 repeat just because it also has a June MDR storm, but it would indicate that we could see significant MDR activity in the peak season.

[Stormybajan]

Gfs might be on the ball again with this one, and with sniffing out another MDR storm in 300+ hours who knows. 94L can be what 2017 Bret was for us in the caribbean, a warning sign that hey by peak season time, the atlantic is going on to be very very active

[AnnularCane]

94L.

Can't I even get away from here for a few minutes?

[ElectricStorm]

Like others have said, it's not often we see a wave like this in June. Would be even crazier if it actually develops...

[Iceresistance]

Do any of y'all recall a Cape Verde Invest in June?


(From the Wii U Internet Browser)

[GCANE]

925mb vort is increasing however convection is mostly shear driven at this time.
Doesn't look like it'll do much if moves north into the GOM due to strong anchored ULL to the NW.

[CyclonicFury]

Do any of y'all recall a Cape Verde Invest in June?


(From the Wii U Internet Browser)

Yes, the invest that became TS Bret in 2017. Last year also had a tropical wave get invested in late June, and 2010 also had one.

[Iceresistance]

Do any of y'all recall a Cape Verde Invest in June?


(From the Wii U Internet Browser)

Yes, the invest that became TS Bret in 2017. Last year also had a tropical wave get invested in late June, and 2010 also had one.

Maybe a June Invest previews something potentially bigger down the line . . .

This one is the best-looking system in the MDR I've seen in a while . . .

[sma10]

If 94L develops and attains TS status, even for a bit, it will be a massive sign of activity for the rest of the season. As I posted in the seasonal indicators thread, the presence of at least one AEW-based system (either in the MDR or further west) in July usually correlates to an active Atlantic hurricane season. A MDR storm in mid-June is even more of a sign that conditions will be very favorable later on. The current record holder for the earliest named MDR storm is Bret on June 19th, 2017; that season had an exceptionally active MDR with three storms exceeding 130 kt, including 155 kt and 64.9 ACE Irma. That doesn’t mean 2021 is going to be a 2017 repeat just because it also has a June MDR storm, but it would indicate that we could see significant MDR activity in the peak season.

I believe 2017 was listed as analog in CSU's seasonal outlook

[galaxy401]

Atlantic thinks it's late July instead of mid June. Very rare for an invest this far east this early in the season. Those SHIPS models have it to hurricane strength which will be unprecedented. Very likely it will be much weaker though.

[Shell Mound]

Like others have said, it's not often we see a wave like this in June. Would be even crazier if it actually develops...

I will only be impressed if 94L manages to attain TS status, however briefly. If so, look out. If not, it doesn’t necessarily portend a hyperactive season.

[aspen]

Atlantic thinks it's late July instead of mid June. Very rare for an invest this far east this early in the season. Those SHIPS models have it to hurricane strength which will be unprecedented. Very likely it will be much weaker though.

One model gets it to Cat 4 intensity, which is…nope.

Funny how the MDR is cooler than average with a bunch of SAL, but this invest exists and has model support for development.

[Kingarabian]

Even though its just the GFS showing this system and could be over doing it, it's the only model so far Ive seen this year that can initialize systems properly.

[GeneratorPower]

Atlantic thinks it's late July instead of mid June. Very rare for an invest this far east this early in the season. Those SHIPS models have it to hurricane strength which will be unprecedented. Very likely it will be much weaker though.

One model gets it to Cat 4 intensity, which is…nope.

Funny how the MDR is cooler than average with a bunch of SAL, but this invest exists and has model support for development.

I remain convinced that "average" has been increased so that even "average" temps is much warmer than it was in 1980, for example. I have not dug into the records on this but that is my suspicion.

[St0rmTh0r]

Thor here, I had nothing to do with this! But this is a sign of very active Cape verse season.

[Kazmit]

Crazy that we have an MDR invest right now despite everyone talking about the cool SSTs. If it warms back to average temps again, watch out.