ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

92L will likely make a sharp turn to the northwest and end up close to 15°N within the next few days, thanks to the monsoonal circulation. The 12Z GEFS suite is still in line with my general idea(s). A sharp northwestward lurch would place 92L over cooler waters and in a more stable environment, as well as decrease the risk of a landfall on either the islands or the CONUS, owing to latitudinal factors as well as the northward displacement of the mid-level ridge axis. So my ideas still seem to be “on track.” 92L would need to maintain a general westward or west-northwestward heading over the next few days to still present a viable threat to either the islands or the CONUS.

[Woofde]

92L will likely make a sharp turn to the northwest and end up close to 15°N within the next few days, thanks to the monsoonal circulation. The 12Z GEFS suite is still in line with my general idea(s). A sharp northwestward lurch would place 92L over cooler waters and in a more stable environment, as well as decrease the risk of a landfall on either the islands or the CONUS, owing to latitudinal factors as well as the northward displacement of the mid-level ridge axis. So my ideas still seem to be “on track.” 92L would need to maintain a general westward or west-northwestward heading over the next few days to still present a viable threat to either the islands or the CONUS.

Possible, but the NHC doesn't seem to believe that's the case. They generally have it going WNW instead.

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[toad strangler]

Regardless of development chances, 12z Euro has this moving generally Westward

[Hammy]

Looks like we're having the same setup that stunted MDR development early last September where the monsoon flow is causing the waves to interact too much to where none develop.

[toad strangler]

Looks like we're having the same setup that stunted MDR development early last September where the monsoon flow is causing the waves to interact too much to where none develop.

…. Until further west

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like we're having the same setup that stunted MDR development early last September where the monsoon flow is causing the waves to interact too much to where none develop.

…. Until further west

I am thinking this season is going to be very similar to 2017. Harvey did not develop into a depression until about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and Irma did not intensify quickly until it approached them either. Harvey didn't really do much either until he entered the Gulf. Let's see if this wave starts to look better when it gets closer to the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021080618, , BEST, 0, 102N, 244W, 25, 1011, LO

[captainbarbossa19]

Where are all the pro-mets? I always enjoy their opinions on what they think is transpiring. Also, where is Aric Dunn? I have not seen him on any threads in a while.

[Nimbus]

I see two areas of rotation the area further west is a little further south which might give it the moisture advantage. If the area further east rotates north into the SAL it won't be the dominant center for long. Could take a while for the models to get a handle on the evolution.

[Sciencerocks]

[StPeteMike]

Looks like we're having the same setup that stunted MDR development early last September where the monsoon flow is causing the waves to interact too much to where none develop.

…. Until further west

I am thinking this season is going to be very similar to 2017. Harvey did not develop into a depression until about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and Irma did not intensify quickly until it approached them either. Harvey didn't really do much either until he entered the Gulf. Let's see if this wave starts to look better when it gets closer to the Caribbean.

I’m right there with you guys. Once these storms can get far away from the monsoon flow down there, that’s when many will start get going. Unfortunately this just points to more of a threat to the CONUS/C.AM with 1. storms not getting strong enough before the islands to lift north and 2. Bermuda High being pretty strong to keep them going west longer before curving.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm honestly not really surprised 92L really has amounted to nothing so far, but I would caution that if it manages to go more west and find more favorable conditions there without falling apart then that would almost certainly be worth watching now that we are in August. I think the far east MDR is still a bit unfavorable for rapid development. Plus 92L is very big.

[Zonacane]

I'm honestly not really surprised 92L really has amounted to nothing so far, but I would caution that if it manages to go more west and find more favorable conditions there without falling apart then that would almost certainly be worth watching now that we are in August. I think the far east MDR is still a bit unfavorable for rapid development. Plus 92L is very big.

Monsoon gyres take forever to sort out, it will be a bit

[Cpv17]

Where are all the pro-mets? I always enjoy their opinions on what they think is transpiring. Also, where is Aric Dunn? I have not seen him on any threads in a while.

I’m wondering the same thing.

[ElectricStorm]

First week of August usually isn't very favorable for these waves to develop way out there so I wouldn't be surprised if either of these fail. However, if they make it further west, they may be able to do something there. So while they may not do anything over the next several days, I could see something trying to spin up if it gets to the Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

William Gray rang the bell every 8/20 for a reason!

[AlphaToOmega]

The NHC has a hard time dealing with the monsoon trough. It is still too early to discount the system, though. Also, no code red invest has failed to develop in the Atlantic this year.
Doing some quick math:
50% * 80% * 90% = 36%
64% chance of a depression developing within 5 days

[Hammy]

Looks like we're having the same setup that stunted MDR development early last September where the monsoon flow is causing the waves to interact too much to where none develop.

…. Until further west

Hence why I specifically noted the MDR specifically.

[toad strangler]

Looks like we're having the same setup that stunted MDR development early last September where the monsoon flow is causing the waves to interact too much to where none develop.

…. Until further west

Hence why I specifically noted the MDR specifically.

Well, The MDR spreads pretty far west. Hence, just pointing it out.

[wx98]

The NHC has a hard time dealing with the monsoon trough. It is still too early to discount the system, though. Also, no code red invest has failed to develop in the Atlantic this year.
Doing some quick math:
50% * 80% * 90% = 36%
64% chance of a depression developing within 5 days

There is no such thing as a “code red invest.” Also, many times invests with high chances of formation through 5 days (and even 48 hours) do not develop. Additionally, I don’t know where you are getting that math problem.