EPAC: DOLORES - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1405933250141372416

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA
AND GUERRERO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Dolores
is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward
speed Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central
Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening. Dolores is then
expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico
and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by
Saturday evening. Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday
while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast
of Mexico.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) north and northeast of
the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4,
WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC further east, brings this into Colima.



12z HWRF weaker, calling for only a high end tropical storm now.



12z HMON brings this inland near Manzanillo.

[cycloneye]

EP, 04, 2021061818, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1021W, 40, 1000, TS

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 181801
TCSENP

A. 04E (DOLORES)

B. 18/1730Z

C. 15.1N

D. 101.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS
2.5 AND PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF brings this into Jalisco though a little further east than before and also weaker.

[Kingarabian]

New burst of convection trying to expand over the center:


It's good we have Recon for this. Seeing how the models are backing off in intensity means we'll likely need their data to verify hurricane strength.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/anthonymweather/status/1405939804097941505

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DOLORES A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.3 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward
speed is expected tonight through Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern
or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated through
Saturday as the center of Dolores approaches the coast of Mexico.
Weakening is forecast once the center moves inland, and Dolores is
expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by early
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning tonight or on Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. A s a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Dolores is a large, sprawling tropical storm. Recent scatterometer
data indicated that the circulation remains broad, with the center
embedded within an elongated area of lighter winds. However, the
scatterometer passes also showed an extensive area of
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 140 n mi to the
northeast of the center, blowing from east to west away from the
coast of Mexico. Based on these data, Dolores's initial winds are
set at 40 kt.

The ASCAT data indicated that Dolores's center is located a little
farther to the right, or northeast, of the previous NHC track
forecast. With this adjusted position, the initial motion is now
estimated to be northwestward (310 degrees) at 6 kt. Dolores is
moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which
extends across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Mexico, and this feature should steer the storm northwestward to
north-northwestward during the next couple of days. All of the
reliable track models show this general trajectory, and they bring
the center inland along the coast of Michoacan, Colima, or Jalisco
during within the next 18-36 hours, with the timing depending on
the storm's exact heading. Because of the eastward adjustment of
the initial position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted
eastward, but it still generally follows the TVCE and HCCA
consensus aids.

Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional
strengthening, particularly warm sea surface temperatures,
mid-level relative humidity between 70 and 80 percent, and
significant upper-level divergence. The two limiting factors to
intensification are (1) the broad structure of the circulation and
(2) less potential time over water due to the eastward shift in the
track. The updated NHC intensity forecast continues to show
intensification up until landfall and is generally close to the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. There is still some possibility that
Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast
if the intensification rate is faster than indicated in the
forecast, or if the center ends up staying over water longer than
indicated. After the center crosses the coast, the mountainous
terrain of west-central Mexico should cause rapid weakening, with
the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low, and then completely
dissipating, in 2 to 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and on
Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions
of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.6N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.6N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 18.5N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 21.2N 104.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z 23.6N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2021 Time : 202020 UTC
Lat : 15:01:46 N Lon : 102:59:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 996.4mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.4

Center Temp : -49.1C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.4 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1405995090577788933

[aspen]

When is recon scheduled to visit Dolores?

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1405995090577788933?s=21

Quite crazy that this particular area is rarely hit considering how many storms hug and form off the Pacific side of the Mexican coast.

[Kingarabian]

ATMS's resolution is worse than AMSU but it seems to show that a core maybe forming. Although this scan is not at the lowest layer:

[cycloneye]

When is recon scheduled to visit Dolores?

Saturday morning at 13z. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121882&p=2906466#p2906466

[Kingarabian]

With deep convection going off around the broad LLC it's giving an illusion of an eye like feature:

[Yellow Evan]

https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1405995090577788933?s=21

Quite crazy that this particular area is rarely hit considering how many storms hug and form off the Pacific side of the Mexican coast.

Tbf Colima is a pretty small state and the tweet was only discussing June systems. Although if you include all months, it isn’t that much better as no hurricane has hit Colima since Hurricane Virgil in 1992.

[Kingarabian]

With that sustained burst of convention, it looks like it's attempting to build a core a bit sooner than expected:


Microwave passes in the next 2-3 hours will be telling.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS a bit faster and a little west than 6z and brings a borderline hurricane into Colima.