EPAC: FAUSTO - Remnants

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2020081412, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1165W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, ep742020 to ep942020,

The southwestern portion of the aforementioned trough is also
producing a large are of disturbed weather nearly 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the
development of this system and it could become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly northward during the next few days. after that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942020 08/14/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 39 42 43 42 38 33 26 15 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 39 42 43 42 38 33 26 15 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 18 17 11 10 8 9 11 16 23 31 35 35 34 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 3 1 0 -1 0 3 3 5
SHEAR DIR 53 37 35 47 55 54 5 316 249 248 239 226 225 227 239 251 268
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.1 27.1 25.6 23.7 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 155 157 157 156 136 121 102 87 82 79 81 81 80 79 81
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 71 72 75 71 62 57 53 51 46 45 43 40 35 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 34 49 57 58 30 38 50 17 -2 12 -1 -18 -47 -72 -72
200 MB DIV 96 113 105 103 77 91 27 10 10 -5 -4 3 1 -30 -22 -17 -35
700-850 TADV -4 -7 -12 -11 -10 -3 -5 -6 -4 8 9 17 15 19 11 15 6
LAND (KM) 1345 1333 1295 1229 1150 951 780 738 790 962 1148 1270 1438 1590 1679 1659 1745
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.1 17.2 19.3 21.4 23.2 24.9 26.1 26.7 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.8 117.1 117.2 117.2 116.8 117.0 118.5 121.0 124.1 127.1 129.9 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 10 10 12 13 16 16 13 12 10 8 4 1 4
HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 19 18 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 25. 25. 22. 19. 17. 14. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 18. 17. 13. 8. 1. -10. -18. -25. -30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 5.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 18.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 2.9% 4.4% 1.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 8.6% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 6.8% 7.6% 0.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) #

[cycloneye]

2. Another area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it
will likely become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Another area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it
is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
north-northwestward or northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks elongated northeast to southwest. I don't see much of a future here.

[cycloneye]

Concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has
slowly become better organized since yesterday and environmental
conditions appear favorable for further development today and
tomorrow. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system
moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[aspen]

Not looking too bad. It has a centralized blob of convection instead of scattered, shallow convection like yesterday. A TD seems likely from this, but a named storm? I doubt it.

[cycloneye]

2. A large area of persistent showers and thunderstorms associated with
an area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The
disturbance does not appear to have developed a well-defined center
yet, but conditions are expected to be favorable for further
development today and tomorrow, and tropical depression is likely to
form during that time. This system is forecast to move slowly
north-northwestward or northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

15/1130 UTC 15.9N 118.1W T1.5/1.5 94E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

15/1731 UTC 18.1N 118.3W T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942020 08/15/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 37 36 34 31 29 26 25 22 21 20 19 18
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 37 36 34 31 29 26 25 22 21 20 19 18
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 1 7 8 14 11 11 8 9 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 -1 0 1 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 35 64 107 240 242 275 288 284 268 243 245 232 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.5 27.6 26.4 25.5 24.1 23.9 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 141 128 120 105 102 86 88 88 89 92 97 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 65 56 51 49 44 41 36 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 17 16 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 69 60 53 52 45 32 0 8 -2 13 -9 10 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 83 84 43 44 33 7 -19 -23 -7 -11 2 -30 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -10 -3 -8 10 2 6 -3 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1070 1028 999 995 978 1076 1234 1393 1579 1741 1891 1961 1756 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 13 12 11 10 11 8 9 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 22 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 9. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 118.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 5.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.90 8.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 4.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.1% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 26.3% 39.6% 27.1% 15.5% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 9.0% 22.7% 17.2% 5.2% 0.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The
associated showers and thunderstorms have not become any better
organized during the past several hours, however, environmental
conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical
depression later tonight or on Sunday while it moves generally
northwestward. Development is not expected after that time as the
system is forecast to move over cooler waters and into a drier
environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

15/2331 UTC 18.4N 119.0W T2.0/2.0 94E

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Appears we're gonna get 11E at 11...

EP, 11, 2020081600, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1185W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, TRANSITIONED, epB42020 to ep112020,

[aspen]

Yet another short lived, weak, struggling TC to add onto this year’s total.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center.
Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets
the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected
to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters
combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in
the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36
to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models
show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days.

The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only
recently become well defined, but my best guess is
north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated
over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next
couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a
shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is
is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

This might have a small window to become a TS considering present day Dvorak numbers and this isn't over sub-26C waters yet but I wouldn't count on it.

[Yellow Evan]

16/0531 UTC 18.8N 118.9W T2.5/2.5 11E

[Yellow Evan]

not sure the justification here.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELEVEN EP112020 08/16/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 36 31 28 25 23 22 22 22 21 18 15 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 36 31 28 25 23 22 22 22 21 18 15 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 10 11 19 17 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 2 -1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 350 312 289 285 274 281 276 254 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.0 24.1 23.3 22.2 22.0 22.1 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 115 106 97 85 82 83 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 60 55 50 47 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 31 11 -12 -35 -23 -44 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 43 36 42 24 13 -9 -12 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -10 -13 -9 -7 -4 11 12 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 914 893 878 891 931 1129 1289 1447 1630 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.3 25.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.6 120.3 121.6 122.9 125.7 128.3 130.7 132.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 13 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 118.8

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112020 ELEVEN 08/16/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.9% 4.8% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.8% 8.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 ELEVEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

This is a marginal TS based on presentation + SAB.