ATL: MARCO - Models

[Blinhart]

The 12z GFS ensembles tell the story, a weaker/shallow system will get caught in the westerly flow quicker. A more developed/deeper system will go more north:
https://i.imgur.com/yd0XeTb.png

Depending on the structure of Marco, Louisiana could be in for a lot of rain if these tracks varify.

[Ivanhater]

Nhc track looking very lonely over there. Tvcn over Nola now

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[3090]

Nhc track looking very lonely over there. Tvcn over Nola nowhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200822/4ce18109e231699287b022f4b6589376.jpg

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Safe to say, the average is right over SELA.

[Ritzcraker]

Nhc track looking very lonely over there. Tvcn over Nola nowhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200822/4ce18109e231699287b022f4b6589376.jpg

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UKMet hasn’t budged for nearly 4 runs from what I can tell

[xironman]

The 0z models will have fully ingested the data from the Gulfstream flights sampling the atmosphere. I would expect the models to start to coalesce around a solution with higher skill.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS:

[Audrey2Katrina]

Nhc track looking very lonely over there. Tvcn over Nola nowhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200822/4ce18109e231699287b022f4b6589376.jpg

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UKMet hasn’t budged for nearly 4 runs from what I can tell

From what I've seen it's moved Marco from SW Louisiana to more SE La and MS coast event, and Laura well.. into TX as a 960 73 kt storm.. Thursday it had Laura going into Mobile Bay... unless I'm reading the wrong data.

[Javlin]

Nhc track looking very lonely over there. Tvcn over Nola nowhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200822/4ce18109e231699287b022f4b6589376.jpg

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UKMet hasn’t budged for nearly 4 runs from what I can tell

From what I've seen it's moved Marco from SW Louisiana to more SE La and MS coast event, and Laura well.. into TX as a 960 73 kt storm.. Thursday it had Laura going into Mobile Bay... unless I'm reading the wrong data.

You about got it Sir just Laura is still up in the air a bit the models have been worthless this year for the most part.Oh and by the way good to see ya Kevin

[Kingarabian]

18Z ICON hr 24:

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON hours 24-42:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS initialized:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 18:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 30:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS bending back to the west hour 42:

[Ivanhater]

Watch the gfs shift back to Texas after NHC shifted both storms to Nola

[La Breeze]

Watch the gfs shift back to Texas after NHC shifted both storms to Nola

What do you think the possibilities of this happening? The swinging models are like windshield wipers.

[Kingarabian]

Watch the gfs shift back to Texas after NHC shifted both storms to Nola

Looks like it:


Though I bet the coastline will get TS winds for sure with strong SW winds blowing towards there.

[Blinhart]

So the NHC track has it going into New Orleans and then taking I-49 as a Tropical Storm all the way to Alexandria.

[SoupBone]

Watch the gfs shift back to Texas after NHC shifted both storms to Nola

Looks like it:
https://i.imgur.com/iVd3YMv.png

Though I bet the coastline will get TS winds for sure with strong SW winds blowing towards there.

No, Marco still goes to Louisiana, though more west than last track.

I also think this is the beginning of the smaller windshield wiper effect of the models for Marco, meaning SWLA to New Orleans as landfalls now.

[SoupBone]

Are yall looking at what the HWRF does with Marco?

He's meandering around south of the Florida panhandle for pretty much all of Monday.