ATL: DOLLY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Maybe Dolly?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure system located about 320 miles southeast of Cape Cod,
Massachusetts, has become better organized today. The low is moving
slowly eastward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and if
this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived
subtropical depression or subtropical storm could form later today
or tonight. The system is expected to weaken as it moves over cold
waters by late Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Nimbus]

Up to 40% as it turned east.
Looks better organized than it has been.

[aspen]

It’s actually looking really good. I’d say there’s a decent chance it becomes TD4 or Dolly for the next update.

[wxman57]

Stewart is going to call it a subtropical depression shortly. He raised chances to 80%. Should be dissipating tomorrow. Not very exciting.

[cainjamin]

It's put on a pretty impressive bit of organization over the next few hours - not surprised that the NHC is calling it. Winds look pretty low, but I wouldn't be surprised if it strengthens to TS strength as it accelerates eastward.

[wxman57]

Models had been predicting it to peak today and dissipate tomorrow.

[Kiko Snowe]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
405 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the development
of a Subtropical Depression over the northwestern Atlantic.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure system located about 350 miles southeast of Cape Cod,
Massachusetts, has continued to get better organized today, and a
subtropical depression appears to be forming. If these trends
continue, advisories will be initiated on this system at 500 PM AST
this afternoon. This system is expected to move eastward and
northeastward away from the United States during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
----
I THINK WE'RE ABOUT TO GET AN STC

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like we might have our first SD peak since 2005.

[aspen]

Stewart is going to call it a subtropical depression shortly. He raised chances to 80%. Should be dissipating tomorrow. Not very exciting.

Well, since SAL should keep a lid on activity for the next two weeks, at least it’s something.

[toad strangler]

Stewart is going to call it a subtropical depression shortly. He raised chances to 80%. Should be dissipating tomorrow. Not very exciting.

No harm no foul as long as it doesn't get a name

[Kiko Snowe]

It would be fine if it was named or not named imo, just hoping for something subtropical tbh

[NDG]

Is right over the very warm gulf stream, near 80 deg F.

[northjaxpro]

This system on satellite presentation alone is looking so much better than it did from this time 24 hours ago. It is now traversing over warmer ssts and I think we will see this upgraded to Dolly before tomorrow.

I would not be surprised if it acquires tropical characteristics briefly as well within the next 12-24 hours.

[CyclonicFury]

Officially STD 4.

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020
500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST...
...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[TheStormExpert]

Well this came kind of out of nowhere!

I thought when looking at the Atlantic satellite view this morning it looked better than last night.

[Kazmit]

It's systems like these that can really rack up the count for the season. I'm thinking 20+ storms seems likely.

[Nuno]

Is right over the very warm gulf stream, near 80 deg F.

https://i.imgur.com/XU1nmse.gif

What site can I view these?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If this becomes Dolly before 12z tomorrow, it'll become the earliest fourth ATL named storm in history.

[FireRat]

Dang, and just like that even this thing might pull it off, so much for Davy Jones!

It might become Dolly after all, and at this rate what's it gonna be this season, 25 named storms?