Hammy wrote:al78 wrote:us89 wrote:
Another thing about 2020 that keeps getting lost: not all cat 1 hurricanes are alike. True, Marco and Nana barely got there, and Isaias was a messy storm ... but remember how Hanna looked at landfall? Only reason she didn't strengthen above 90 mph was that she ran out of water. With just a few more hours over water she would have easily hit cat 2 and could have made a run at major status.
That said, I'd say 2005 and 2020 are only similar seasons if you exclude July 2005. Two cat 4+ storms before August is simply too much for this season to beat unless the basin pumps out a whole lot of long-lived majors in Sept/Oct. I'd want to see a definite cat 5 from this year (though hopefully out at sea!) before trying to make any comparisons.
The only comparison with 2005 is the number of storms, and that storms have struggled in the MDR. 2020 is so far a failed attempt to replicate 2005. By this time in 2005 we'd had two category 5 hurricanes, one which was one of the most destructive to the U.S. on record. This year so far we have had one major, Laura, which was not as bad as feared, a handful of minimal hurricanes, and a load of storms that have struggled to develop. Things can easily ramp up in the coming weeks and there is another wave coming off Africa which has a high probability of developing into Sally, so it is not over until it's over, but I find the comparison with 2005 rather inappropriate. Just compare ACE, hurricane days, major hurricane days to date.
Lets see what happens as we move into October when storms tend to form and intensify in the Caribbean and Gulf. If we get some rapidly intensifying monsters I would agree more with a 2005 comparison. In 2005 storms tended to intensify into powerful hurricanes in the west side of the basin, which was unfortunate for the Gulf states.
I would hardly say Laura was "not as bad as feared." You had Cat 4 damage well into Lake Charles, and the coastal communities were wiped out. Nobody reasonably expected a Cat 5 and in fact it came in much stronger than had been forecast.
Laura wasn't as bad as feared from a storm surge perspective. The surge was lower than feared, which does make a difference to the death and destruction, surge and drowning being the primary cause of death and destruction in hurricanes. Laura was certainly no Katrina, I expect it will turn out to be about as costly as you would normally expect from a cat 4 landfall. Obviously for those communities hit by the core winds, the wind and surge damage will be extreme.
