WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
40 knot RI
29W KAMMURI 191202 0600 13.0N 125.6E WPAC 105 951
29W KAMMURI 191202 0000 12.9N 126.5E WPAC 90 964
29W KAMMURI 191201 1800 12.9N 127.8E WPAC 80 972
29W KAMMURI 191201 1200 13.0N 128.8E WPAC 70 980
29W KAMMURI 191201 0600 13.0N 129.7E WPAC 65 983
29W KAMMURI 191202 0600 13.0N 125.6E WPAC 105 951
29W KAMMURI 191202 0000 12.9N 126.5E WPAC 90 964
29W KAMMURI 191201 1800 12.9N 127.8E WPAC 80 972
29W KAMMURI 191201 1200 13.0N 128.8E WPAC 70 980
29W KAMMURI 191201 0600 13.0N 129.7E WPAC 65 983
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
cebuboy wrote:I've checked the track of this Typhoon , the eye will directly pass over Legazpi City at its full strength. (which is a big city by Philippine standards with many people)
I'm a bit worried because this is a coastal city in front of Albay Gulf.
This bears similarity to Tacloban City during Haiyan landfall.
Storm surge is always high when it hits coastal gulf areas because of the coastal shape (incoming surge is trapped at its concentrated directly to the coast)
I also check that its high tide in the evening when it will make a landfall.
I do hope that people in the coastal area of this city will be entirely evacuated.
I don't think the angle of approach of this storm to Legaspi would maximize the surge in the city (the RFQ will pass north of the city) and the surge would be blocked by Bacacay.
The worst case scenario for storm surge in Legazpi would be a WNW to NW track from the south (probably a landfall in Sorsogon.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
2019DEC02 064000 6.1 943.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -2.66 -72.70 EYE 19 IR 13.3 13.05 -125.47 ARCHER HIM-8 23.3
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Eye temp rapidly increasing
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Delta of 82.81*C
2019DEC02 071000 6.1 943.8 117.4 6.1 6.0 6.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.30 -71.51 EYE 23 IR 13.3 13.06 -125.48 ARCHER HIM-8 23.3
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Yellow dot is Legaspi City
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Doing one last bout of intensification. Probably a marginal cat 4 at this point.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Eyewall finally complete
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
85 kt cat 3 expecting 90 kt after landfall
TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 December 2019
<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 December>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°00' (13.0°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°10' (13.2°)
E123°05' (123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E120°50' (120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E117°10' (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°20' (11.3°)
E114°25' (114.4°)
Direction and speed of movement S 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 December 2019
<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 December>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°00' (13.0°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°10' (13.2°)
E123°05' (123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E120°50' (120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E117°10' (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°20' (11.3°)
E114°25' (114.4°)
Direction and speed of movement S 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Still intensifying.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
This one is a nice shot of this Typhoon:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
The eye looks very clear.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
The eye looks very clear.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
Latest video taken at the northern Samar just before evening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0hx5hJa_zY
Looks pretty strong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0hx5hJa_zY
Looks pretty strong.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
2019DEC02 094000 6.1 943.8 117.4 6.1 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.38 -74.13 EYE 30 IR 64.7 12.94 -124.93 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7
2019DEC02 101000 6.3 939.5 122.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.23 -74.38 EYE 28 IR 64.7 12.95 -124.97 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7
2019DEC02 104000 6.3 939.4 122.2 6.3 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.97 -73.73 EYE 27 IR 64.7 13.04 -124.93 ARCHER HIM-8 23.8
2019DEC02 101000 6.3 939.5 122.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.23 -74.38 EYE 28 IR 64.7 12.95 -124.97 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7
2019DEC02 104000 6.3 939.4 122.2 6.3 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.97 -73.73 EYE 27 IR 64.7 13.04 -124.93 ARCHER HIM-8 23.8
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
PAGASA CATARMAN -
12.505382N, 124.628544E
LAOANG MUNICIPAL BUILDING LAOANG
12.570056N, 125.010389E
974.31 hPa @18:45:10 PM (local time)
CATANDUANES STATE COLLEGES VIRAC
13.583736N, 124.210648E
989.70hPa @ 19:15:10 PM (Local time)
POLICE STATION BAGAMANOC BAGAMANOC
13.9395666N, 124.28873333E
996.86hPa @ 17:56:32 PM (Local Time)
12.505382N, 124.628544E
LAOANG MUNICIPAL BUILDING LAOANG
12.570056N, 125.010389E
974.31 hPa @18:45:10 PM (local time)
CATANDUANES STATE COLLEGES VIRAC
13.583736N, 124.210648E
989.70hPa @ 19:15:10 PM (Local time)
POLICE STATION BAGAMANOC BAGAMANOC
13.9395666N, 124.28873333E
996.86hPa @ 17:56:32 PM (Local Time)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
wow
DURIAN's microwave was meaner though
DURIAN's microwave was meaner though
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
remains cat 3
29W KAMMURI 191202 1200 13.1N 124.5E WPAC 105 944
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
But 6.0
TPPN10 PGTW 021236
A. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI)
B. 02/1200Z
C. 12.89N
D. 124.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0706Z 12.97N 125.68E SSMI
02/0754Z 13.02N 125.32E SSMS
02/0854Z 13.02N 125.27E SSMS
02/0910Z 13.02N 125.27E MMHS
02/0951Z 13.02N 125.08E WIND
02/1017Z 13.05N 124.95E SSMS
MARTIN
A. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI)
B. 02/1200Z
C. 12.89N
D. 124.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0706Z 12.97N 125.68E SSMI
02/0754Z 13.02N 125.32E SSMS
02/0854Z 13.02N 125.27E SSMS
02/0910Z 13.02N 125.27E MMHS
02/0951Z 13.02N 125.08E WIND
02/1017Z 13.05N 124.95E SSMS
MARTIN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon
CI 6.5, almost STY
2019DEC02 121000 6.5 935.0 127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.78 -76.90 EYE/L 35 IR 60.4 13.00 -124.70 ARCHER HIM-8 24.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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