ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

This is from one of our local meteorologist here in Panama City. I hope he is right but I don't know if I would make such a definitive statement at this stage of the game.
http://tropicwatch.info/definitive102420191537z.jpg

For the most part I think he's spot on. I think this is more an interest from a meteorological geek perspective (which naturally does include a good number of us posters here ). I highly doubt this will present any real risk to Gulf coastal area. Furthermore, after the most recent tropical abortion I doubt that NHC is in any hurry to be trigger happy with this next one (even if it does ultimately become more worthy of T.D. designation tonight or tomorrow).

[northjaxpro]

The window for this to develop into its own entity is so small and tight before shear and the front merges with the tropical Low by tomorrow.

I say whatever happens has to be within the next 12-18 hours or so for it to be classifiedd as a TD at least. It will help to provide for some hopefully good rainfall for those needed it badly along portions of the Northern Gulf Coast region going into this weekend.

[ronjon]

This is from one of our local meteorologist here in Panama City. I hope he is right but I don't know if I would make such a definitive statement at this stage of the game.
http://tropicwatch.info/definitive102420191537z.jpg

For the most part I think he's spot on. I think this is more an interest from a meteorological geek perspective (which naturally does include a good number of us posters here ). I highly doubt this will present any real risk to Gulf coastal area. Furthermore, after the most recent tropical abortion I doubt that NHC is in any hurry to be trigger happy with this next one (even if it does ultimately become more worthy of T.D. designation tonight or tomorrow).

Although 97L definitely looks warm core and tropical now to start off with - compared to Nestor. While Nestor had no real discernible wind field like a tropical entity, it did spawn a pretty significant (by Florida standards) EF1 tornado that had a long path in Polk County, Florida.

[rbaker55]

looking at visible sat sure looks to have a good circulation while working towards the NW this could be a TD already

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1187419004295614464

[MarioProtVI]

As I suspected. Poorly defined circulation and very elongated. I think 50/50 was too high on that STWO.


Update: seems like NHC agrees but changes still seem too high.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of
Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system
could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with
a cold front by late Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[wxman57]

Merges with cold front tomorrow morning - the end.

[Sciencerocks]

[northjaxpro]

We need recon. This is almost certainly a td right now.

I don't know Aric...... I mean, yeah there's west winds pulling into the circ and some convection right over where a COC seems to be trying to form. I just think the core is not quite defined yet. I'd like to see the convection maintain and expand over center but the primary CDO is east and north of the LLC and moving north. It sure is trying to make a good go of it though.

Recon not scheduled to fly down there until tomorrow.....

NOUS42 KNHC 231430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 23 OCTOBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR
24.0N 95.5W FOR 25/1730Z.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR
24.0N 95.5W FOR 25/1730Z.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro likes it a some more.

[galaxy401]

Merges with cold front tomorrow morning - the end.

The NHC implies it will happen tomorrow night so I guess it'll be a waiting game for the next 24 hours. Regardless, the system won't be around for long. Impressed by the quick flare-up though.

[SoupBone]

Merges with cold front tomorrow morning - the end.

The cold front appears to be moving a little faster than expected. So that window is even smaller for it to develop?

[SoupBone]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/6110/Dv4Bdf.gif

Booooyyyy, if this were August or September, I'd be worried.

[MarioProtVI]

Funny enough 97L actually shows an inconsistency with classifying systems – Nestor had the same type of circulation that 97 has right now: broad and poorly defined, yet it isn’t classified. Makes me a little skeptical on Nestor too.

[caneman]

This is from one of our local meteorologist here in Panama City. I hope he is right but I don't know if I would make such a definitive statement at this stage of the game.
http://tropicwatch.info/definitive102420191537z.jpg

For the most part I think he's spot on. I think this is more an interest from a meteorological geek perspective (which naturally does include a good number of us posters here ). I highly doubt this will present any real risk to Gulf coastal area. Furthermore, after the most recent tropical abortion I doubt that NHC is in any hurry to be trigger happy with this next one (even if it does ultimately become more worthy of T.D. designation tonight or tomorrow).

Although 97L definitely looks warm core and tropical now to start off with - compared to Nestor. While Nestor had no real discernible wind field like a tropical entity, it did spawn a pretty significant (by Florida standards) EF1 tornado that had a long path in Polk County, Florida.

Think they ended up rating it EF2

[floridasun78]

Merges with cold front tomorrow morning - the end.

bring out bone in morning of friday

[Hammy]

Funny enough 97L actually shows an inconsistency with classifying systems – Nestor had the same type of circulation that 97 has right now: broad and poorly defined, yet it isn’t classified. Makes me a little skeptical on Nestor too.

Nestor had a developed circulation the entire time--when it was a PTC the issue was multiple circulations (and advisories are not being initiated here because unlike pre-Nestor, there's no need to issue watches or warnings.)

Circulation right now is a curved sharp trough (Nestor on left)

[johngaltfla]

Just Die Nestor. I have reservations for Brennan's in New Orleans Saturday Night. I really don't need this. Hit Florida as a thundershower and nothing more please.

[NDG]

This afternoon it still looks to have a broad elongated circulation at the surface as the ASCAT pass earlier this morning showed but pressures continues to fall, buoy 42055 reporting pressure down to 1006mb with wind gusts close to 30 knots, it only has a few hours left before the front sweeps on through.

[tropicwatch]

Rotation showing up nicely even on IR.