ATL: CHANTAL - Remnants

[Hammy]

This thing has pretty strong vorticity. When it emerges off the OBX, it should be in a ribbon of low shear with ~28 degree SSTs. By far the biggest inhibiting factor seems to be dry air, with GFS forecasted RH around 50% for the western side of the system.

Looks like it could form similarly to Claudette in 2015 or Bonnie's regeneration in 2016. Both were also fairly small as they emerged from the Outer Banks.

[GCANE]

Land friction and strong UL winds are displacing the vorts.
Surface low hugging the coast.
850mb vort to the NE.

[GCANE]

Cape Lookout
Pressure dropping quickly
33 knt wind gust

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=clkn7

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located over eastern North Carolina is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any tropical
development today is expected to be limited due to the system's
proximity to land. By tonight, the low is expected to move
northeastward over the Atlantic, where some further organization
could occur before the system encounters cooler waters in a day or
so. The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a
threat of flash flooding in coastal portions of North Carolina
through this evening. Please see products from your local National
Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2019081812, , BEST, 0, 350N, 769W, 25, 1014, LO

[NDG]

Not the best looking satellite presentation this morning with lots of outflow boundaries on its eastern quadrant.

[DioBrando]

UGH, AS IF! This won't become named, it'll be extratropical.

[GCANE]

Surface, 850mb, and 700mb circulations are just about stacked.
Much better than earlier this morning.

[cycloneye]

Next.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system near the North Carolina Outer Banks is moving
into the Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development while the system moves
northeastward to east-northeastward, and away from the U.S. east
coast, during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Hammy]

This was probably the last chance to get a storm this month.

[DioBrando]

False hope smh!

[NDG]

Chances should had been 0% on the latest TWO. It has been decapitated by the strong SW shear. Strange how not even in the mid latitudes systems have not been able to form.

[NotSparta]

This was probably the last chance to get a storm this month.

You'd be surprised, it's much easier to get a storm to randomly pop up in late August. There is a reason that a completely dead August is a rarity

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located about 100 miles east of Norfolk,
Virginia, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
This low is moving northeastward, away from the United States, and
has only a slight chance to significantly organize through Monday
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Aric Dunn]

Convection has blossomed to the east of the center. However the low level steering has increased in favor of less relative shear. Could see a center reform east into convection.

[NDG]

Not quiet a TD per this morning's ASCAT pass, broad circulation.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1163804407164596224




Now or never.

[shiny-pebble]

This looks better than any of the classified TCs this year, lol

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[MGC]

97L is looking pretty good this morning.....I've seen worst systems classified....MGC

[wxman57]

Convection has certainly flared up near the center this morning. I agree, it looks better than anything that was called a TS in the East Pacific this season. Fortunately, it has only a 10% chance of developing (per NHC).