WPAC: 35W - Post Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139192
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WPAC: 35W - Post Tropical
Location: 6.0°N 146.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
I like its appearance.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Top models aren't intensifying this by much possible TD to min TS (as of latest runs) before landfall.
UKMET min cat 1
UKMET min cat 1
Code: Select all
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.12.2018
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.1N 136.8E
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.12.2018 84 9.5N 136.0E 998 34
1200UTC 26.12.2018 96 10.1N 134.1E 993 44
0000UTC 27.12.2018 108 10.7N 131.8E 981 51
1200UTC 27.12.2018 120 10.9N 129.6E 972 59
0000UTC 28.12.2018 132 11.0N 127.0E 967 65
1200UTC 28.12.2018 144 10.8N 124.9E 982 46
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
JMA 12Z
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 141E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 141E WEST SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
ABPW10 PGTW 231630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231630Z-240600ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N
140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231214Z MHS 89 GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE
DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW. A 231141Z METOP-B AND
231215 METOP-A ASCAT IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING LLC WITH 25-30 KNOT
WINDS LOCATED OVER 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATED A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH WEAK,
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231630Z-240600ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N
140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231214Z MHS 89 GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE
DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW. A 231141Z METOP-B AND
231215 METOP-A ASCAT IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING LLC WITH 25-30 KNOT
WINDS LOCATED OVER 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATED A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH WEAK,
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
ABPW10 PGTW 231930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231930Z-240600ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 269
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231635Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SLOWLY A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW. RECENT ASCAT IMAGES REVEAL A DEVELOPING
LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN (28-
30 CELSIUS) SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231930Z-240600ZDEC2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 269
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231635Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SLOWLY A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW. RECENT ASCAT IMAGES REVEAL A DEVELOPING
LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN (28-
30 CELSIUS) SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Looks like it'll be a wet Christmas for our neighbors in Palau and Yap.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
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- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THRITYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF PERSISTENT BUT SHEARED CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 241155Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 35W ALSO HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THOUGH TAU 24, TD 35W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODERATE WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AND ALLOW TD 35W TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES WILL PREVENT
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 45 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO STEER TD 35W WESTWARD. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEING TO INTERACT
WITH A SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 120 WHICH WILL ALSO
PREVENT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)
Officially, this is still only an invest, as JMA has not classified it as a depression. It doesn't matter what JTWC does...
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- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)
I think this is the first 35W in the 21st Century! This year has been amazing!
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- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: Invest 96W (JTWC - Tropical Depression 35W)
WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
84 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241759Z SSMI
85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE AND A 241746Z F-15 NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOW SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND SLP OBSERVATIONS OF 1003MB FROM KOROR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY BROAD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
35W IS TRACKING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, MODERATE VWS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, WHICH WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY,
VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL DECREASE FURTHER, HOWEVER, INTERACTION
WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. AS TD 35W EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT BY TAU 120, WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
84 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241759Z SSMI
85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE AND A 241746Z F-15 NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOW SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND SLP OBSERVATIONS OF 1003MB FROM KOROR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY BROAD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
35W IS TRACKING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 35W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, MODERATE VWS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, WHICH WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY,
VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL DECREASE FURTHER, HOWEVER, INTERACTION
WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. AS TD 35W EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT BY TAU 120, WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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