CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 99 99 97 91 85 75 69 63 54 48 44
V (KT) LAND 90 97 99 99 97 91 85 75 69 63 54 48 44
V (KT) LGEM 90 98 102 102 100 91 81 72 62 55 49 44 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 16 18 14 11 11 11 3 5 3 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 4 4 2 1 0 -4 -2 -5 -5 -5
SHEAR DIR 50 54 52 40 37 51 44 33 27 77 48 106 300
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 25.8 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 152 150 143 135 123 118 117 115 115 118
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 52 52 50 48 44 41 38 40 40 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 28 27 26 23 22 20
850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 35 37 33 49 73 65 59 53 26 13 8
200 MB DIV 6 17 14 7 14 30 15 17 3 -1 7 2 0
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -6 -2 -8 -4 -8 1 -4 3 1
LAND (KM) 1032 1091 1157 1221 1292 1451 1589 1763 1968 2011 1751 1509 1282
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.3
LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.8 119.8 120.9 122.0 124.5 127.1 129.9 132.8 135.6 138.2 140.7 143.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 9 10 3 2 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. 4. 1. -2. -3. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 9. 7. 1. -5. -15. -21. -27. -36. -42. -46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.0 117.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 5.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.11 -0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 22.5% 17.7% 15.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.2% 3.9% 3.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 10.4% 8.9% 7.1% 6.1% 4.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS: 7.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Ntxw]

Maybe a run at major

[Astromanía]

Looks beautiful, maybe sixth major?

[Kingarabian]

SAB and ADT have this as a major:

04/1800 UTC 16.8N 118.7W T5.5/5.5 OLIVIA -- East Pacific

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 SEP 2018 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 16:45:36 N Lon : 118:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 953.5mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

[Kingarabian]

Interesting that the 12z suite shifted south with a stronger ridge, resulting in a bigger threat to Hawaii although its in the long range (120 hours out). Fortunately it's hard to get a Hawaii impact when storms are this far north and east. The ridge has to become exceptionally strong to force these storms closer to Hawaii as they enter the CPAC.

[Ntxw]

She looks like a major to me on satellite

[Kingarabian]

She looks like a major to me on satellite

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/5f/7e/sid7T1mw_o.gif[img]

Yeah there's no denying that it's a major hurricane right now. Also looks pretty too.

[TorSkk]

17E OLIVIA 180904 1800 16.9N 118.7W EPAC 100 963

Major Hurricane now

[EquusStorm]

I sense the intensity is gonna over-perform on this one too. Epac rarely disappoints. Reminder that this time yesterday, the forecast peak intensity was 80mph

It's got about 24 hours or so, I strongly suspect it makes a run at Cat 4 given the last few frames. Eye clearing spectacularly with increasingly cold topped nearly perfect eyewall

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Olivia has continued to strengthen and now has a well-defined 15-20
n mi wide eye inside a central dense overcast. A complex of outer
bands is also occurring in the southwestern semicircle. The various
satellite intensity estimates have increased into the 100-110 kt
range, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt. It
should be noted that the current intensification has occurred in an
apparent environment of 10-20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear,
as indicated by the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS.

As with the earlier forecast, how much additional intensification
will occur is uncertain. The intensity guidance suggests that
continued shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track will allow 12 h or less of additional strengthening,
and the guidance again forecasts only modest strengthening during
this time. Given the persistence of the rapid intensification, the
intensity forecast will not stop intensification that abruptly, and
it now calls for a peak intensity of 110 kt in 12 h at the upper
edge of the intensity guidance. It is still possible that Olivia
could get stronger than this. After 12-24 h, the cooler sea surface
temperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause gradual
weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease. This part
of the intensity forecast lies a little above the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion is 270/10, and the short-term motion may be a
little to the south of due west. As noted previously, a
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with an
increasing forward speed during the next several days. Near the
end of the forecast period, a more westward motion is possible.
The model guidance again supports this scenario with a tight
clustering, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to, but
slightly south of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.9N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.0N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 18.1N 125.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 144.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

Lots of 12z EPS members shifted south as well:

[1900hurricane]

DTs are bouncing around between 5.5 and 6.0 right now. Coupled with SATCON near 100 kt, 100-105 kt looks pretty good right now.

[Kingarabian]

Eye continues to warm:



About to plow through a dry air mass.

GFS keep this a major hurricane for at least the next 48 hours.

[Chris90]

I really hope Olivia achieves 115 kts, just because it is going to bother me if she falls short of all the other majors this season and doesn't reach Cat 4. She is looking pretty good, so I hope she continues to defy forecasts and beats the 110kt peak they have forecasted right now.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 96-192:

[StruThiO]

Another day, another gorgeous tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific. The basin is flaunting its stuff this year

[Ntxw]

Olivia probably deserves 115kts by the next advisory

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 SEP 2018 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 16:43:47 N Lon : 119:30:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +10.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[bob rulz]

18z GFS hours 96-192:

The GFS really has it out for Hawaii this year.

[Kingarabian]

T6.0 from SAB. Almost a solid consensus to upgrade to Cat.4 depending on what TAFB puts out.

[Astromanía]

Olivia is sexy