WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Looks like mid level shear is eating at it. Per CIMSS it looks like it'll be moving into an area of low mid level shear soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly doesn’t even look that bad. NHC should probably raise development odds a little in the short term.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure
system located about 650 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
system, and it could become a tropical depression during the next
few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[euro6208]

Wow...Impressive...Another possible strong fish to track...Reanimation?

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 61 66 70 72 75
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 61 66 70 72 75
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 42 46 51 55 59 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 6 4 4 4 6 10 11 10 8 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 2 3 3 3 -2 -2 -5
SHEAR DIR 61 71 94 116 144 111 137 71 73 90 105 109 93
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.6 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 150 147 150 147 141 142 145 143 140 147
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 62 65 69 70 72 72 70 72 69 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -2 -6 -5 -5 -12 -10 -27 -21 -20 -18 -11
200 MB DIV 22 12 12 12 0 17 18 13 1 3 3 18 22
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -6 -3 -2 0 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 939 988 1075 1177 1282 1499 1661 1820 1989 2137 2283 2409 2545
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.2
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 107.2 108.8 110.5 112.1 114.9 117.5 120.1 122.6 124.9 127.0 128.9 130.8
STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 13 12 11 10 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 20 23 23 21 19 16 16 14 11 16 18 29 25

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 28. 36. 41. 45. 47. 50.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 105.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 3.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 16.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.8% 14.2% 6.9% 3.0% 2.3% 5.3% 13.7% 51.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.6% 12.6% 6.3% 1.0% 0.8% 6.7% 10.2% 17.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 291218
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 29/1145Z

C. 9.4N

D. 105.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS THAN
1.25 DEGREE FROM SMALL COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF LOW LEVL.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today
in association with a low pressure system located about 600 miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development of this system, and it
could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 55 59 62 63 64
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 55 59 62 63 64
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 37 39 42 45 47 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 7 8 7 7 10 11 10 11 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 66 76 94 114 112 126 125 87 98 123 145 140 143
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.6 27.6 28.2 27.6 28.3 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 149 151 147 149 148 141 141 147 141 148 143
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 65 65 68 67 69 67 68 64 63 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -16 -15 -10 -10 -11 -18 -21 -36 -26 -17 -4 -1
200 MB DIV 20 18 20 4 -10 31 1 23 12 18 24 38 10
700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -8 -2 -1 -1 0 -2
LAND (KM) 902 940 1006 1097 1186 1388 1531 1724 1917 2100 2291 2477 2546
LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.1
LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.4 108.9 110.6 112.1 115.1 118.1 120.9 123.6 126.1 128.5 130.7 132.7
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 23 26 25 25 22 17 19 12 11 15 23 28 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 106.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 2.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 15.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 3.1% 15.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 8.3% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 5.2% 6.3% 5.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be evolving away from a CCC.

[cycloneye]

Change in language.Now is later.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico have become less organized today. Environmental conditions
are currently only marginally favorable and any development should
be slow to occur over the next couple of days. By mid-week,
conditions could become a little more conducive for development
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a small area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently only
marginally favorable and any development should be slow to
occur over the next couple of days. By mid-week, conditions could
become a little more conducive for development while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

This has a bright future if SHIP is right.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/30/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 47 55 64 68 75 79 81
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 47 55 64 68 75 79 81
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 35 39 42 46 53 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 2 5 6 5 4 2 4 2 5 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 6 3 4 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 60 34 49 89 69 69 97 127 117 131 69 95 107
SST (C) 28.5 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.7 26.7 28.2 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 147 146 147 141 142 143 140 142 131 147 146
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 63 66 68 68 65 64 60 62 59 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -17 -20 -25 -23 -29 -24 -12 -2 11 21 27
200 MB DIV 6 -6 18 18 11 19 16 17 17 8 4 12 7
700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2
LAND (KM) 1127 1194 1266 1352 1403 1507 1656 1785 1956 2166 2365 2419 2230
LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.4 11.7
LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.7 113.1 114.5 115.9 118.6 121.2 123.7 126.2 128.7 131.1 133.4 135.6
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 24 27 22 18 14 18 11 20 28 20 16 11 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 38. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 27. 35. 44. 48. 55. 59. 61.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 110.3

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.3% 49.6% 30.5% 19.0% 4.9% 26.9% 17.7% 33.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 8.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.4% 19.2% 10.3% 6.4% 1.7% 9.4% 6.3% 11.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[wxman57]

Neither the GFS nor the Euro does much with it. Will most likely be like the previous two systems in the region - weak and short-lived.

[hurricanes1234]

Neither the GFS nor the Euro does much with it. Will most likely be like the previous two systems in the region - weak and short-lived.

Of course, assuming anything does form at all.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next few days while the disturbance moves
generally westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next few days while the disturbance moves
generally westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Anyone have a recent ASCAT pass?

I think the NHC is waiting to see if it can maintain convection and not have it blown off again. Because it looks really good right now.

[Kingarabian]

SAB back up to 1.0/1.0:

30/1800 UTC 11.5N 111.2W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific



HWRF blowing it up again:

[Yellow Evan]

A center seems to be evident at 11N 110W where shower activity is becoming more stacked. Development chances are rising if you ask me.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/30/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 63 65 68 69 68
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 63 65 68 69 68
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 42 45 47 48 51 55 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 8 10 7 9 8 7 6 5 6 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 4 2 3 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -6 1
SHEAR DIR 26 46 74 78 75 85 97 109 100 106 94 114 194
SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.2 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 147 141 145 141 140 141 141 147 142
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 68 67 64 64 59 57 56 58 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -17 -24 -27 -20 -15 -22 -1 0 24 31 48 43
200 MB DIV -2 15 17 2 1 19 17 30 2 3 10 -2 -16
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 1159 1221 1289 1341 1374 1470 1615 1763 1950 2186 2409 2328 2112
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.7
LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.6 113.9 115.2 116.5 119.1 121.7 124.2 126.6 129.2 131.8 134.3 136.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 27 26 22 15 12 14 11 23 32 15 13 10 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 32. 38. 40. 43. 44. 43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 111.3

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 17.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 11.7% 38.8% 20.9% 12.5% 4.4% 17.8% 12.0% 23.3%
Bayesian: 0.5% 16.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 5.3% 5.8% 0.1%
Consensus: 4.1% 25.2% 13.7% 4.2% 1.5% 13.1% 11.9% 7.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX