ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1044600283249168384

[northjaxpro]

As analyzed by ozonepete earlier and I concur with as well, I definitely think NHC is simply awaiting a convective flareup around the low level circulation. As soon as that occurs, they will classify it as a TD or possibly a tropical storm later today.

[Hurricaneman]

As analyzed by ozonepete earlier and I concur with as well, I definitely think NHC is simply awaiting a convective flareup around the low level circulation. As soon as that occurs, they will classify it as a TD or possibly a tropical storm later today.

And don’t forget recon confirmation later today

[northjaxpro]

As analyzed by ozonepete earlier and I concur with as well, I definitely think NHC is simply awaiting a convective flareup around the low level circulation. As soon as that occurs, they will classify it as a TD or possibly a tropical storm later today.

And don’t forget recon confirmation later today

Yes indeed Hurricaneman.

[EquusStorm]

It looks like ASCAT missed it. This may be a case of something that gets updated based on coastal radar if recon/etc don't confirm it at a convenient time. Extremely impressive system to have no confirmed LLC yet.

[northjaxpro]

Completely agree EquusStorm!

[ozonepete]

I agree with everybody on the last few posts. ASCAT missed it since the core circulation covers a pretty small area. If this burst wraps around and over the LLC it will probably expand in size and bring the winds up to the west. I suspect the nearby stationary front along the coast is involved in keeping the winds down on the western side. I will look at more data to see what's going on there at low levels.

[GCANE]

Strengthening on radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

[Hammy]

As analyzed by ozonepete earlier and I concur with as well, I definitely think NHC is simply awaiting a convective flareup around the low level circulation. As soon as that occurs, they will classify it as a TD or possibly a tropical storm later today.

And don’t forget recon confirmation later today

When's the plane flying out?

[Hurricaneman]

As analyzed by ozonepete earlier and I concur with as well, I definitely think NHC is simply awaiting a convective flareup around the low level circulation. As soon as that occurs, they will classify it as a TD or possibly a tropical storm later today.

And don’t forget recon confirmation later today

When's the plane flying out?

230

[northjaxpro]

Convection is now firing and wrapping into the low level center on composite radar. I am pretty confident Recon will find a TD, possibly a TS when they get in there shortly.

[invest man]

[quote="northjaxpro"]Convection is now firing and wrapping into the low level center on composite radar. I am pretty confident Recon will find a TD, possibly a TS when they get in there shortly.[/quote
You think they will put warnings up on the Carolina coast?

[Hammy]

This band of clouds has gone from almost still to westerly over the last hour or two so it's certainly trying to form, but I'm still not seeing any low cloud evidence it's closed off to the west. everything there is still or slightly easterly.

[OuterBanker]

And don’t forget recon confirmation later today

When's the plane flying out?

230

Yes, and data should be available for 5 pm advisory.

[northjaxpro]

Convection is now firing and wrapping into the low level center on composite radar. I am pretty confident Recon will find a TD, possibly a TS when they get in there shortly.[/quote
You think they will put warnings up on the Carolina coast?

Well, should Recon confirm the tropical cyclone formation, then we will see a 5:00 p.m. package issued by NHC and likely watches/warnings issued for portions of the mid-Atlantic coastal region, which based on the proximity of the storm, could include the NC coast area

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/MY9WuuW.png

This band of clouds has gone from almost still to westerly over the last hour or two so it's certainly trying to form, but I'm still not seeing any low cloud evidence it's closed off to the west. everything there is still or slightly easterly.

good eye Hammy. yeah if everyone looked past the clear mid level circ and looked at the low level ( as myself and ozone mentioned earlier) then you would see the easterly motion to the cloud lines that have become more defined the last couple hours.

will take a little more convection to build near the center to really get this going.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. Satellite and surface data indicate that
the circulation of the low remains elongated and not well defined.
However, this system could still become a tropical depression this
afternoon or tonight while it moves slowly northwestward to
northward. By Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely
due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, this
system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina
this afternoon and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina
coast today. For more information, please see products from your
local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Hammy]

No recon? The only one showing up is a training mission into the NW Caribbean.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Southeastern NC just can not handle this. Half of Brunswick County has their possessions sitting on the side of the road from flooding that still has not completely gone away, and the other half has mountains of trees on the side of the road.

[ozonepete]

No recon? The only one showing up is a training mission into the NW Caribbean.

Look up above at the 2PM TWO Luis just posted.