ATL: PHILIPPE - Models
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
0z GFS with much stronger EPAC system and as a result just some weak vorticity in the WC
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Looks like whatever is left merges with a front??
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
UKMET now going for a short fused Long Island Express
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 24.2N 82.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2017 96 24.2N 82.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 29.10.2017 108 27.0N 79.0W 1000 34
0000UTC 30.10.2017 120 36.1N 74.8W 989 52
1200UTC 30.10.2017 132 44.2N 73.0W 976 68
0000UTC 31.10.2017 144 49.8N 73.2W 965 46
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 24.2N 82.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2017 96 24.2N 82.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 29.10.2017 108 27.0N 79.0W 1000 34
0000UTC 30.10.2017 120 36.1N 74.8W 989 52
1200UTC 30.10.2017 132 44.2N 73.0W 976 68
0000UTC 31.10.2017 144 49.8N 73.2W 965 46
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
hello last 12z are bent on making this a fl storm before heading to be a noreaster the question is how strong it will be stay tuned
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
The ECMWF looks more enthusiastic on potential development this run compared to the previous couple of runs by looking how the 850MB vorticity looks more robust and defined.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12Z ECMWF 96 hours with a TC passing through the FL Keys/ straits:
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Latest discussion (past 20 minutes). Miami NWSFO only emphasizing moisture, not models that indicate TC development, probably due to shear (after coordinating with NHC forecaster):
By Saturday, models are showing an area of tropical moisture
moving up from the south, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are indicating heavy
rainfall accumulations are possible, with area averages of 3 to 4
inches possible, and localized areas possibly seeing higher
totals. This will not be around long, as the next cold front is
forecast to move through on Sunday, causing the tropical moisture
to be pushed out by Sunday late afternoon or evening. This air
mass is not forecast to be quite as cool, but will still bring
lows back down into the 50`s and 60`s by Tuesday morning. Dew
points are also forecast to drop back down into the 40`s and 50`s
for Monday.
By Saturday, models are showing an area of tropical moisture
moving up from the south, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are indicating heavy
rainfall accumulations are possible, with area averages of 3 to 4
inches possible, and localized areas possibly seeing higher
totals. This will not be around long, as the next cold front is
forecast to move through on Sunday, causing the tropical moisture
to be pushed out by Sunday late afternoon or evening. This air
mass is not forecast to be quite as cool, but will still bring
lows back down into the 50`s and 60`s by Tuesday morning. Dew
points are also forecast to drop back down into the 40`s and 50`s
for Monday.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
i hope weak td or weak ts i see models are not making it that strong
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
0z Euro shows the energy from 93L combining with an extratropical low that forms off the NC coast this weekend, and heads up to New England. I remember no-name storms like this when I was a kid in Connecticut. Kind of New England's version of the Witch of November from Great Lakes storm lore.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12z... Bams not in EPAC now...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
I had TWC on in the background getting ready for work, they said 3-5 inches for SFL across Sat and Sun.
Why do these significant weather events always have to happen over the weekend?
Why do these significant weather events always have to happen over the weekend?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12z Euro suggests that a run for Philippe is still possible.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
CyclonicFury wrote:12z Euro suggests that a run for Philippe is still possible.
12z Euro..
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
18z...
18z Intensity... 60 mph TS possible for SFL...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
So Fl met says heavy rain there on Sat afternoon and evening. Do any of the models show heavy rain taking longer to get to So Fl and having Sunday as the rainy day instead of Sat?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Miami NWS said it's possible but too soon to know for sure. GFS came up with the Saturday solution and NWS seems to be favoring that idea. Per the IR it seems a lot of energy has shifted eastward towards Jamaica, probably due to the strong front that even cleared out the NW Caribbean. Just a guess, but possible per some of the models most of the rain will be east of Florida.
Frank2
Frank2
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