ATL: PHILIPPE - Models
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Lol bams taking it into the epac..
That's because they're based off of the Ralph Wiggum GFS
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
108hr see another west shift in the ridge position from 18z. This may make a closer run to Florida.
Looks to be slower than the 18z.
Looks to be slower than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
00z CMC much further west so far over western tip of Cuba.
Also with a big shift in the trough west from 12z.
Looks like models are seeing a slower trough evolution.
Also with a big shift in the trough west from 12z.
Looks like models are seeing a slower trough evolution.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.6N 82.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 84 17.6N 82.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.10.2017 96 19.8N 82.2W 1001 32
1200UTC 28.10.2017 108 21.9N 81.4W 997 38
0000UTC 29.10.2017 120 24.7N 79.0W 984 57
1200UTC 29.10.2017 132 27.4N 75.4W 978 65
0000UTC 30.10.2017 144 31.9N 71.2W 983 59
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.6N 82.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 84 17.6N 82.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.10.2017 96 19.8N 82.2W 1001 32
1200UTC 28.10.2017 108 21.9N 81.4W 997 38
0000UTC 29.10.2017 120 24.7N 79.0W 984 57
1200UTC 29.10.2017 132 27.4N 75.4W 978 65
0000UTC 30.10.2017 144 31.9N 71.2W 983 59
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.6N 82.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 84 17.6N 82.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.10.2017 96 19.8N 82.2W 1001 32
1200UTC 28.10.2017 108 21.9N 81.4W 997 38
0000UTC 29.10.2017 120 24.7N 79.0W 984 57
1200UTC 29.10.2017 132 27.4N 75.4W 978 65
0000UTC 30.10.2017 144 31.9N 71.2W 983 59
That is also a west shift from 12z if not mistaken.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Ukmet very close to SE Florida now and stronger.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Virtually no Ensemble support now, but has strong support for the EPAC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
06z GFS has 1005 mb low into Naples.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017102406&fh=120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017102406&fh=120
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
06z HMON - heading N-NE at 975 mb toward central cuba.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=93L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017102406&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=122
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=93L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017102406&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=122
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Shear forecast - hard to see anything very strong affecting SFL with this overhead:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/cu ... .anim.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/cu ... .anim.html
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
I wonder if the EPAC “phantom storm” is limiting the models’ (especially the GFS) ability to correctly resolve this system. NHC doesn’t expect anything in the EPAC.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12Z UKMET looks to hit SE FL at 980-990MB so another west shift:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.9N 83.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 72 17.1N 83.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.10.2017 84 19.4N 83.4W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.10.2017 96 22.3N 82.7W 990 51
0000UTC 29.10.2017 108 25.2N 80.7W 981 61
1200UTC 29.10.2017 120 27.8N 77.2W 989 54
0000UTC 30.10.2017 132 33.1N 72.8W 988 54
1200UTC 30.10.2017 144 42.9N 73.5W 979 48
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.9N 83.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 72 17.1N 83.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.10.2017 84 19.4N 83.4W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.10.2017 96 22.3N 82.7W 990 51
0000UTC 29.10.2017 108 25.2N 80.7W 981 61
1200UTC 29.10.2017 120 27.8N 77.2W 989 54
0000UTC 30.10.2017 132 33.1N 72.8W 988 54
1200UTC 30.10.2017 144 42.9N 73.5W 979 48
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
No one mentioned it, but the 00Z ECMWF officially shows landfall over Southwestern Florida in five days (00Z/26 October):
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017102400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_6.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017102400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_6.png
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
Shell Mound wrote:No one mentioned it, but the 00Z ECMWF officially shows landfall over Southwestern Florida in five days (00Z/26 October):
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017102400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_6.png
yep alot of models as of now are taking this system very close to south fl still needs to be watch might be surprise down the road
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