ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
8 AM TWO:
A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:8 AM TWO:
A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
cycloneye, how did you fare in irma?...i know you were offline for a few days.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Deep convection on the increase
Looks like a mess.
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- Weatherboy1
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Here in Jupiter, things have largely returned to normal. Lost a tree in front of the house, lost power for a day or so, etc. But all in all, made out okay with no home or property damage. Unfortunately, many others (especially on the west coast and in the Caribbean) fared much worse from Irma. Here's hoping that 96 doesn't bother us/them as well. Way too early to tell from the modeling so far, so will just keep a semi-watchful eye at trends over the next few days.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Careful in misjudging this large area of disturbed weather at such a low latitude. Typically with such large disturbances it takes longer to consolidate and the Deterministic Global Guidance will struggle until we have an actual low level circulation identified. A general track to the West will continue until such time that we see that low level circulation organize. It is also noteworthy that the Ensembles suggest a monsoonal trough/gyre developing in about 10 days or so across the Western Atlantic Basin and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Certainly looking more formidable looking at the wide loop:
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Could you enlighten us what the ramifications are of that monsoonal trough/gyre you reference occurring in the EPAC? Thanks!srainhoutx wrote:Careful in misjudging this large area of disturbed weather at such a low latitude. Typically with such large disturbances it takes longer to consolidate and the Deterministic Global Guidance will struggle until we have an actual low level circulation identified. A general track to the West will continue until such time that we see that low level circulation organize. It is also noteworthy that the Ensembles suggest a monsoonal trough/gyre developing in about 10 days or so across the Western Atlantic Basin and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
I will never make fun of the MDR being a dead zone ever again...
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Hope this storm stays away from Florida. We cannot survive another Duke Energy exacerbated disaster. Power will be out indefinitely and I'll have to become a subsistence farmer.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:I will never make fun of the MDR being a dead zone ever again...
I believe the term I read a few times from different posters was "MDR Wasteland".
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
This one looks to cause mischief for someone. Low latitude and ridging pattern over the eastern US as we head for latter September.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Joe B calling for a Cat 2 off the Florida coast after moving through the islands as a TS/Cat1...
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Well JB's cone was pretty spot on for IRMA when she was a good 8-9 days out. Then again his cone his huge in the long-range like 1000 miles wide.
I can see this storm ending up further west than models show in the long-range.
I can see this storm ending up further west than models show in the long-range.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Well JB's cone was pretty spot on for IRMA when she was a good 8-9 days out. Then again his cone his huge in the long-range like 1000 miles wide.
I can see this storm ending up further west than models show in the long-range.
Yeah, he seems to error farther W, Caribbean/GOM, then a recurve... It will be hard to miss that cone...
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Looks like it has good spin already. I see possible "LLC" 11N 43W thought this may be mid-level:
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/908746830879629312
Tropical storm or #hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday http://hurricanes.gov #96L
Tropical storm or #hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday http://hurricanes.gov #96L
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, " not sound very good. Wait and see:eek: folks again again... we have to monitor closely the situation of us who live in the Leewards as most of the Windwards too. Something to keep a very close eye on . Let's wait and see what could happens.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion
Gustywind wrote: "Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, " not sound very good. Wait and see:eek: folks again again... we have to monitor closely the situation of us who live in the Leewards as most of the Windwards too. Something to keep a very close eye on . Let's wait and see what could happens.
Looks like 96L is heading your way Gusty then targeting PR...
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- terstorm1012
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