EPAC: EX-INVEST 94E
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EPAC: EX-INVEST 94E
I was browsing the floaters page and stumbled upon this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/vis0.gif
I see it is also present in the Storm2k image:
Therefore we have Invest 94E? There's nothing being mentioned in the TWO, aside from an area expected to form in a few days with a 0%/20% chance.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/vis0.gif
I see it is also present in the Storm2k image:
Therefore we have Invest 94E? There's nothing being mentioned in the TWO, aside from an area expected to form in a few days with a 0%/20% chance.
Last edited by hurricanes1234 on Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
EP, 94, 2016080912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1176W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016080918, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1177W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1178W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081006, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1182W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1184W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
EP, 94, 2016080918, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1177W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1178W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081006, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1182W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 94, 2016081012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1184W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Hmmm so it became an invest before the NHC lemoned it.
Perhaps this may become the weak storm the models are forecasting for a little while now?
Perhaps this may become the weak storm the models are forecasting for a little while now?
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A weak area of low pressure about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is drifting
northwestward. The low is forecast to merge with an area of
disturbed weather farther west later this week, and some slow
development of that system is possible by the weekend while it
moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A weak area of low pressure about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is drifting
northwestward. The low is forecast to merge with an area of
disturbed weather farther west later this week, and some slow
development of that system is possible by the weekend while it
moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
12z Euro makes this a decent TS. Problem is it takes too long to consolidate while moving NW so by the time it develops it runs into high shear and decreasing SSTs.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Much like what Howard did.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
But for this early stage it looks quite good IMO.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area is forecast to form over the weekend while it
moves generally westward. Some subsequent development of this
system is possible by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area is forecast to form over the weekend while it
moves generally westward. Some subsequent development of this
system is possible by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Beven
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- Kazmit
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
The chances haven't increased since I first saw this. Looks like development could be slow on this one.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area could form over the weekend while the
disturbance moves generally westward. Some gradual development
is possible by early next week before the system moves into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area could form over the weekend while the
disturbance moves generally westward. Some gradual development
is possible by early next week before the system moves into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 08/12/16 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 52 59 65 67 69 70 70
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 52 59 65 67 69 70 70
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 32 38 42 47 51 55 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 4 5 6 3 4 2 7 4 8 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3
SHEAR DIR 61 69 82 83 51 48 360 15 330 23 27 24 11
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 152 154 156 153 149 145 147 150 153
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 64 64 64 63 65 66 64 64 58 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -20 -20 -12 -16 -15 -15 -6 -1 2 -4 -17 -25
200 MB DIV 54 41 44 43 37 23 9 7 44 52 28 19 -6
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1
LAND (KM) 2390 2448 2453 2357 2252 2057 1863 1659 1469 1266 1085 917 760
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0
LONG(DEG W) 131.0 132.0 132.9 133.8 134.8 136.7 138.7 140.9 143.0 145.2 147.3 149.5 152.0
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 11 13
HEAT CONTENT 20 26 33 40 44 39 31 26 28 30 46 45 52
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 32. 39. 45. 47. 49. 50. 50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.4 131.0
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.24 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.2% 17.4% 17.0% 4.5% 2.2% 20.1% 14.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Consensus: 1.1% 6.3% 5.8% 1.5% 0.7% 6.7% 4.8%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Kazmit
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Down to 0%/10% at latest update.
1. A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area could form over the weekend while the
disturbance moves generally westward. However, any subsequent
development of the low should be slow to occur before the system
moves into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Forecaster Beven
1. A broad area of disturbed weather is located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A low pressure area could form over the weekend while the
disturbance moves generally westward. However, any subsequent
development of the low should be slow to occur before the system
moves into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Forecaster Beven
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kazmit
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Soon to move into the CPac.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Intensity-wise, what are the latest runs showing?
I just get the feeling this could pull another Ivette on us in the end.
I just get the feeling this could pull another Ivette on us in the end.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
The floater has been dropped!
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Re: EPAC: EX-INVEST 94E
Percents have increased slightly despite no longer being officially an invest.
An area of disturbed weather is located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is moving
westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is moving
westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Re: EPAC: EX-INVEST 94E
Chances now up to 20%/30%.
An area of disturbed weather is located about 1250 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is moving
westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is moving
westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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