NotoSans wrote:08W CONSON 160813 1800 34.3N 152.1E WPAC 50 985
I'm glad that JTWC finally learns to take a look at ASCAT instead of blindly follows Dvorak.
WDPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING
NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, A 131636Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 TO
50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS
THE MICROWAVE STRUCTURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. TS 08W IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. SSTS WILL DROP SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
12 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR HOKKAIDO,
JAPAN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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