ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Wayyyy to early for any predictions on this one yet. It could go anywhere. Do I sound professional yet?

based on recent model performance you sound rational...however, this one likely wont be the hot mess 9 is so the models should have a better shot..lets see

The heck with Ian or Hermine.

I hereby name TD9 "Hot Mess 9"...best name for it yet!

[abajan]

5-day development chances down to 40%

[blazess556]

Models have backed off/delayed development of 92L over the east Atlantic due to a huge plume of dust/dry air pushing into the MDR. Forward speed will be an issue as well.

[LarryWx]

Opinions about what this sat loop is showing (location, organization or lack thereof) as 92L goes into the far E Atlantic?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[jlauderdal]

Wayyyy to early for any predictions on this one yet. It could go anywhere. Do I sound professional yet?

based on recent model performance you sound rational...however, this one likely wont be the hot mess 9 is so the models should have a better shot..lets see

The heck with Ian or Hermine.

I hereby name TD9 "Hot Mess 9"...best name for it yet!

hot mess ingredients are there..fast speed, dust, dry air...JB's clubber shear will probably make an appearance too

[NDG]

First time posting on 92L, I did not posted prior because I knew the models were going to start backing off sooner or later.
This could be yet another 99L with 100+ pages before it develops

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little
more favorable for some gradual development of this system late this
week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[CFLHurricane]

I am willing to guess this is more than likely going to be 99L redux due to shear and dry air. And that is only of it misses the shredder.

Only positive factor i see is the MJO coming around.

Is there any reason this will be different?

[LarryWx]

This is forecasted by the Euro to move 15-20 mph for the next couple of days followed by an increase to ~25mph starting late Thursday til Saturday underneath the strong ridge! That kind of speed is usually not conducive to strengthening in the MDR. Then it slows to near 20 mph once to 55W this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Yikes.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/770572789606715392

[NDG]

The only thing more favorable for 92L than 99L had is that a Kelvin Wave is moving into the western Atlantic basin during the next few days.

[Gustywind]

Yet another tropical system may emerge as a post-Labor Day threat to Caribbean, US

Alex Sosnowski

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

August 30, 2016; 3:53 AM ET
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... y/59770383

Another strong tropical disturbance, moving off the coast of Africa, bears watching for strengthening. While still several days away, the system may impact the Caribbean and United States during September.

Even as the Atlantic is teeming with tropical systems this week, another may join in the frenzy before the week comes to a close.

In addition to Tropical Depression Eight, Tropical Depression Nine and Hurricane Gaston, the train of disturbances moving off of Africa has the potential to produce another tropical system worth tracking for the long-term.

The disturbance is likely to take a path much farther west than Gaston, which turned northward over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

During Tuesday the disturbance will be near Cabo Verde, formerly known as the Cape Verde Islands.

"This disturbance will move westward over the Atlantic in an environment generally favorable for tropical development during the balance of this week," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Fast motion between 15 and 20 mph (24 and 32 km/h), along with pockets of dry air and disruptive winds along the way, may hinder rapid development of the system initially.

The system could impact the Leeward Islands around Sunday, Sept. 3, or Monday, Sept. 4, with rough seas, drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms.

Steering winds could then guide the system on a curved path during the balance of next week.

As a result the new system may not travel as far west as Tropical Depression Nine did.

It is possible the system could roll near Puerto Rico and then Bahamas before turning northward near the Atlantic coast of the United States around the second weekend of September.


Provided the system avoids the larger islands of the Caribbean, disruptive winds and dry air, there is the potential for development to a tropical depression, tropical storm and a hurricane in the days ahead.

There is the potential for additional systems to form in the coming weeks with the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10 and hurricane season continuing through October and into November.

[RL3AO]

[LarryWx]

This is forecasted by the Euro to move 15-20 mph for the next couple of days followed by an increase to ~25mph starting late Thursday til Saturday underneath the strong ridge! That kind of speed is usually not conducive to strengthening in the MDR. Then it slows to near 20 mph once to 55W this weekend.

There are usually exceptions to the rule and this case is no exception: Allen of 1980 did, indeed, average nearly 25 mph for six days in the MDR/Caribbean (between 30W and 85W) and it did make it to cat 5 twice during that period:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016


...TROPICAL WAVES...


A tropical wave emerging off the African coast reaches from
08N19W to 1008 mb low pressure near 16N20W to 18N19W. The
gradient bewteen the tropical wave and high pressure to the north
is enhancing northeast flow across the Canary Islands. Scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are evident off the coast of
Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. The tropical wave is expected
to stay intact as it tracks westward across the Atlantic over the
next several days, accompanied by areas of fresh to strong winds and
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

[abajan]

Yet another tropical system may emerge as a post-Labor Day threat to Caribbean, US

Alex Sosnowski

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

August 30, 2016; 3:53 AM ET
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... y/59770383

... The system could impact the Leeward Islands around Sunday, Sept. 3, or Monday, Sept. 4, with rough seas, drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms. ...

The only problem is that those dates don't exist this year.

[jlauderdal]

This is forecasted by the Euro to move 15-20 mph for the next couple of days followed by an increase to ~25mph starting late Thursday til Saturday underneath the strong ridge! That kind of speed is usually not conducive to strengthening in the MDR. Then it slows to near 20 mph once to 55W this weekend.

systems inside of 50 are the ones we really have to watch...landfall chanches significantly higher with systems that get a designation W of 50

[tolakram]

Off the GoesE FTP site

[p1nheadlarry]

Models have backed off/delayed development of 92L over the east Atlantic due to a huge plume of dust/dry air pushing into the MDR. Forward speed will be an issue as well.

I'm glad someone else noticed, it would have to be booking it to make it to the west Atl by the timeframe showing on the model.

Plume of SAL coming off the coast with 92L also.

[p1nheadlarry]

This is forecasted by the Euro to move 15-20 mph for the next couple of days followed by an increase to ~25mph starting late Thursday til Saturday underneath the strong ridge! That kind of speed is usually not conducive to strengthening in the MDR. Then it slows to near 20 mph once to 55W this weekend.

Hugo was another quick mover, similar track in some previous model runs as well (though not nearly as strong)
There are usually exceptions to the rule and this case is no exception: Allen of 1980 did, indeed, average nearly 25 mph for six days in the MDR/Caribbean (between 30W and 85W) and it did make it to cat 5 twice during that period:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif