WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

Euro's latest run is less aggressive, but still shows a very powerful typhoon near the Okinawa. Euro seems to have a tendency to overestimate typhoon's intensity at this latitude though, so I would probably take their forecast with a grain of salt.

[euro6208]

12W LIONROCK 160820 1800 30.2N 135.3E WPAC 40 993

[stormwise]

@NotoSans when the EC progs very low pressure i always take notice..

[euro6208]

12W LIONROCK 160821 0600 29.5N 133.4E WPAC 40 993

Remains 40 knots...

[shah83]

Euro still insists Lionrock will be a storm to remember...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A 211626Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING SOME CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. STEERING FLOW IS
CURRENTLY WEAK, AND THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO MEANDER AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WITH A RECENT JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING, EXCEPT FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEAR
TERM.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WITH ERRATIC MOTION IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SLOW
DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CHINA IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD,
FORCING TS 12W TO RESUME A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AS TS
10W PULLS NORTHWARD AND MAKES LANDFALL IN JAPAN, THE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TS 12W SHOULD DIMINISH AND
ALLOW IT TO STEADILY INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SCATTERED WILDLY
AROUND THE MAP, SO THERE IS ESPECIALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE ONCE
THE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 10W ENDS.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Plenty of differences still exist, but GFS intensity for Lionrock down the road is trending in the direction of the ECMWF solution. I actually explain a little bit why I think that's the case in my latest blog entry.

[shah83]

Well, the Euro has...upped the stakes a bit, my man...

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD WITH FLARING SHALLOW
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
ON THE 220509Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WITH MINIMAL RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE TWO
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE COL AREA IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM, REACHING 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS LIONROCK WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FUEL FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 96.
THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE AID TRACKERS INDICATE AN EVENTUAL
POLEWARD STORM MOTION, HOWEVER, THEY ARE WIDELY SPREAD IN THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF RECURVATURE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2016 Time : 081000 UTC
Lat : 28:43:27 N Lon : 133:40:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 985.0mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -21.9C Cloud Region Temp : -47.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 60km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.4 degrees

****************************************************

[doraboy]

Predicted by TCFS(TC Formation Simulator) V1.07
Initial time:2016/08/22 09UTC

PS:The forecast is based on my own "model" (a small C++ program I wrote)

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z GFS now has a very ECMWF-like solution for Lionrock's intensity. Yikes.

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRIC
CLOUD SHIELD WITH FLARING SHALLOW CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON THE 220907Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT
WITH VERY MINIMAL RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY
(QS) IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST
AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE COL AREA IN A QS MODE FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN
ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM, REACHING 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS LIONROCK WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FUEL FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 96.
THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE AID TRACKERS INDICATE AN EVENTUAL
REVERSE AND POLEWARD STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, THEY ARE WIDELY SPREAD IN
THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF RECURVATURE WITH NAVGEM AS THE LONG
CLOCKWISE OUTLIER AND COAMPS-TC THE SHORT COUNTER-CLOCKWISE OUTLIER.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

OUCH! Okinawa. JMA with peak after exiting Okinawa and NAVGEM right over...




CMC much more calm, slides it out to sea south of Japan.



EURO wants to slam this into Mainland Japan after reaching it's peak of 905 and 914mb in the 00Z and 12Z runs...

[euro6208]

The 12Z GFS now has a very ECMWF-like solution for Lionrock's intensity. Yikes.

How about 899mb?

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PULSATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 221736Z SSMI 89 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH A STRONGER AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON A 221143Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING AS 10W HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION NO
LONGER HINDERING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH IS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS, BUT AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS RATHER
LOW. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TS 12W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS
TWO BUILDING RIDGES COMPETE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL COUNTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO BE GRADUAL AS OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. HOWEVER, ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL BE
OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE SYSTEM CHURNS UP
WATER UNDER ITS QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NER WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD BECOMING
THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AROUND TAU 72 DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH
BY TAU 96 REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY TAKE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE IN SHARP
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK
SHIFTS; NAVGEM BEING THE WESTWARD OUTLIER AND COAMPS SHOWING A
MOSTLY EASTWARD SOLUTION. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2016 Time : 214000 UTC
Lat : 28:11:40 N Lon : 134:26:07 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 984.0mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -61.9C Cloud Region Temp : -50.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

How about 9mb lower...890mb?

[stormwise]