ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

The so called landfall area is not so important in a sheared disorganized system. The main precip. area would be pushed off to the east of the low anyhow. Rainfall appears to be the main threat here.

[cycloneye]

The text and graphics of the Bams tracks and intensity at 00z run.SHIP peaks at 45kts.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SAT JUN 4 2016
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932016) 20160604 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
        160604  0000   160604  1200   160605  0000   160605  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  84.3W   18.1N  86.9W   19.3N  88.8W   20.0N  90.1W
BAMD    16.8N  84.3W   17.9N  85.9W   19.2N  87.4W   21.1N  88.8W
BAMM    16.8N  84.3W   17.8N  86.3W   18.9N  88.0W   20.1N  89.3W
LBAR    16.8N  84.3W   18.0N  86.1W   19.9N  87.4W   22.4N  88.0W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          31KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
        160606  0000   160607  0000   160608  0000   160609  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.3N  90.6W   21.3N  90.1W   22.0N  88.8W   22.4N  90.6W
BAMD    23.7N  90.0W   29.7N  88.5W   36.1N  67.7W   35.6N  44.4W
BAMM    21.6N  90.2W   24.8N  90.6W   27.2N  89.2W   28.7N  87.4W
LBAR    25.2N  87.8W   29.2N  83.4W   29.5N  75.2W   31.9N  65.5W
SHIP        42KTS          45KTS          44KTS          42KTS
DSHP        27KTS          33KTS          31KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.8N LONCUR =  84.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  16.4N LONM12 =  82.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  16.2N LONM24 =  80.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[stormwise]

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
FZNT01 KWBC 040009
HSFAT1

CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO 36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR
17.5N87.5W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
80W AND 87W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 21.5N88W 1005 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 83W TO 86W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 14 FT IN SE SWELL. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS
FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track and plot:

Location: 16.8°N 84.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[gatorcane]

NASA model has a Tampa hit

[Nimbus]

I'm not getting too excited about this one yet except for the rain and potential flooding.
There is an upper level low over Texas that should provide some shearing winds.
Those usually dig or at least remain in the area when there is a tropical circulation to the east of them.

[gatorcane]

Looks to have good upper-level outflow in NE quad with clouds fanning out and bending in a clockwise motion. But strong upper westerly winds appear to be disrupting convection where the weak low center is located at least for the time being.

[CrazyC83]

NASA model has a Tampa hit

That looks like a hit of a pretty strong storm too...

[CrazyC83]

It seems to remind me of several other early June storms in the area, like Allison 1995, Arlene 2005, Alberto 2006 and Andrea 2013.

[SFLcane]

Me or slight shift South on those 00z models? Even if that track sticks all the flooding and impacts from this system will be to the South into palmbeach, Lauderdale, Naples fort Myers dade broward and keys.

Edit.. Actually looks like northward shift.

[stormwise]

Meteo suggests a TD

[xraymike1]

It does. But there is an old saying that the old timers talk about here in Palm Beach County Florida and that is if a storm goes over Swan Island it will it Palm Beach County. Last storm to cross it was Wilma in '05, along with Isabel in '64, and the Cape Sabal Hurricane of '47, Anecdotal, I know but it seems to work.

[dixiebreeze]

I think it's time to secure our neighborhood re-entry tags. We've been in the 100-year "No Name" storm and flood of 1993, Hurricane Elena in 1985 in Cedar Key and a couple other so-called "weak" tropical storms. Not taking this lightly.

[AdamFirst]

00z GFS is rolling. I'll post anything out of the ordinary, otherwise I'll edit this post with the run completion.

[Kingarabian]

GFS slightly stronger this run.

[psyclone]

it's easy to get a water rise up there.

[Hammy]

GFS slightly stronger this run.

Seems better defined too, with potentially hurricane force winds (and a more defined wind flow) at 850MB level after exiting Florida as well.

[Kingarabian]

GFS slightly stronger this run.

Seems better defined too, with potentially hurricane force winds (and a more defined wind flow) at 850MB level after exiting Florida as well.

Yes. Almost inline with previous Euro runs now. Have a feeling that it could be stronger than expected.

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[Florida1118]

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea remain disorganized. A low pressure system is expected to form in association with this disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the adjacent waters by Sunday and drift generally northward. Despite strong upper-level winds, this low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently moves northeastward across the south-central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Hammy]

93l One of the EC ens run may be of interest to Hammy.

That path would certainly bring some welcome rain here.

GEM has also trended farther north and stronger as well, going into the Big Bend area and skirting the SE coast after exiting Florida.