EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[Alyono]

...OTTO REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NE OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

Hate to do this against NHC, but I'd recommend not posting that advisory as it is misinformation

110 mph is the wind speed as per recon

[TheAustinMan]

Hate to do this against NHC, but I'd recommend not posting that advisory as it is misinformation

110 mph is the wind speed as per recon

I suspect a special advisory if the recon data comes to pass. Very interested in seeing dropsonde for wherever recon found those Category 2+ winds.

[NDG]

Wow, Otto is intensifying fast tonight! History in the making?

[NDG]

Is a solid Cat 2 now per VDM.

URNT12 KNHC 240018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162016
A. 23/23:53:10Z
B. 11 deg 09 min N
081 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2930 m
D. 88 kt
E. 023 deg 4 nm
F. 015 deg 103 kt
G. 314 deg 3 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 9 C / 3060 m
J. 19 C / 3032 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C4
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0516A OTTO OB 18
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 314 / 3 NM 23:40:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 330 / 20 KT

[TheAustinMan]

Dropsonde has come in with 93kt surface wind and 120 kt wind aloft at 962mb height. This is definitely intensifying quickly.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave data from as recently as an hour ago didn't scream rapid intensification to me, but recon data certainly seemed to indicate an abrupt pressure drop. Hopefully we get one more pass since they had to rise from 850 mb to 700 mb on the last one.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/801577725785948160

[NDG]

Pressure is probably more like 977mb if not 976 since dropsone reported 20 knots at surface.

[CrazyC83]

Data supports at least 90 kt. Certainly warrants a Special Advisory given proximity to land.

There has never been a major hurricane this late in the season...

[NDG]

Recon going back in at least one more time, lets see if it verifies those high winds.

[Alyono]

the overshooting cloud top seems to be decreasing in intensity. This may weaken somewhat. Given how small it is with a 4 NM wide eye, this is not exactly a very stable system

[northjaxpro]

There is still enough time for Otto to make a run at potential major tropical cyclone status before landfall. A fitting ending to this season indeed for the potential of seeing such an historic intense tropical cyclone in that region of the basin this late in the season.

[emeraldislenc]

It is amazing!!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240038
AF305 0516A OTTO HDOB 40 20161124
002730 1109N 08245W 6967 03166 //// +082 //// 024027 028 030 002 01
002800 1109N 08243W 6970 03159 //// +080 //// 019028 028 030 004 01
002830 1109N 08242W 6966 03160 0075 +086 +086 021029 030 029 004 00
002900 1109N 08240W 6964 03160 0085 +088 +088 015031 033 028 006 00
002930 1109N 08238W 6965 03158 0073 +090 //// 017033 034 029 005 01
003000 1109N 08236W 6965 03153 0070 +090 //// 012040 041 029 005 01
003030 1109N 08235W 6961 03155 0067 +093 +093 015037 041 030 008 00
003100 1109N 08233W 6971 03143 0055 +098 +098 025031 033 033 007 00
003130 1109N 08231W 6969 03144 0057 +093 +093 026039 040 033 008 00
003200 1109N 08230W 6966 03150 0050 +095 +094 035039 041 034 006 00
003230 1109N 08228W 6965 03148 0036 +101 +097 035040 042 034 007 00
003300 1109N 08227W 6971 03133 0040 +103 +095 022039 046 035 021 00
003330 1109N 08225W 6970 03137 0044 +097 +097 025030 038 041 007 00
003400 1109N 08223W 6967 03141 0054 +096 +096 020034 035 036 006 00
003430 1109N 08222W 6969 03137 0060 +094 //// 028038 041 040 010 01
003500 1109N 08220W 6959 03145 0055 +099 +099 023041 045 039 011 00
003530 1109N 08218W 6974 03127 0054 +100 +100 017043 046 039 014 00
003600 1110N 08217W 6957 03143 0049 +101 +101 022041 044 041 011 03
003630 1110N 08215W 6974 03117 0031 +101 +101 028035 038 041 008 03
003700 1110N 08213W 6961 03133 0019 +094 //// 031031 035 042 005 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

I just saw a Twitter discussion with Eric Blake...issues of quality control? The next pass will give us better data. Still, the most conservative estimate that would be reasonable is 85 kt, and it is likely higher than that.

The 4 nautical mile wide eye doesn't help at all in identifying the intensity.

[emeraldislenc]

Will they come out with a special advisory?

[ThetaE]

Wow!!! I just did a double-take when looking at recon data. I saw it right before/during the first pass, and my initial thought was that Otto's chance to reach hurricane status again were slim to none. I am absolutely shocked by this development. 11 mb in 1 hour? Insane.

[Alyono]

pressure may have risen somewhat as I suspected it would

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240048
AF305 0516A OTTO HDOB 41 20161124
003730 1110N 08212W 6970 03124 0020 +096 //// 028033 036 043 006 01
003800 1110N 08210W 6965 03127 0026 +102 //// 027038 038 043 006 01
003830 1110N 08208W 6970 03120 0028 +101 //// 025040 043 047 005 01
003900 1110N 08207W 6968 03119 0005 +104 //// 027041 046 047 006 01
003930 1110N 08205W 6974 03108 9996 +104 +103 031041 047 049 005 00
004000 1109N 08204W 6960 03119 9999 +099 //// 025047 050 049 006 05
004030 1109N 08202W 6968 03099 9991 +104 //// 022051 053 056 013 01
004100 1108N 08201W 6968 03086 9987 +106 //// 019058 062 055 024 01
004130 1107N 08159W 6961 03086 9973 +101 //// 012061 065 055 028 05
004200 1106N 08157W 6978 03048 9929 +111 +110 010049 054 061 022 03
004230 1106N 08155W 6973 03041 9865 +144 +100 353048 055 058 052 03
004300 1107N 08154W 6989 02990 9874 +121 //// 346071 085 084 052 05
004330 1107N 08152W 6963 02978 //// +108 //// 301036 060 /// /// 09
004400 1108N 08151W 7118 02800 9817 +147 +146 200014 024 041 016 06
004430 1110N 08150W 7036 02886 9814 +133 +129 170030 053 064 006 00
004500 1111N 08148W 6947 03041 9825 +127 +118 140066 069 067 003 05
004530 1113N 08147W 6963 03043 //// +105 //// 123073 075 /// /// 05
004600 1115N 08147W 6975 03055 9933 +108 +108 109071 074 056 007 00
004630 1117N 08148W 6977 03068 9942 +112 +108 102064 069 054 007 00
004700 1119N 08148W 6963 03098 9941 +121 +106 104059 061 051 005 00
$$
;

85 kt FL, 84 kt SFMR (may have quality control issues). Clearly missed the tiny center as the lowest SFMR was 41 kt.

[NDG]

Not as strong on this pass, at least preliminary.