EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

When was the last time any of the Islands got hit by a Cat 2 or 3?

Iniki 92 hit as a Cat 4.

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't pay that much attention to these threads because I understand very, very few of the posts. Many of them are simply charts or data dumps with no explanation of what they mean at all.

But I remember last year some discussion of the rarity of the Island being hit from due East. I also recall that the storm(s). that threatened to do so weakened before landfall, so may not have been H1 or above when they did.

So, has Hawaii been hit from due East by an H1 or higher before?

[Ntxw]

I don't pay that much attention to these threads because I understand very, very few of the posts. Many of them are simply charts or data dumps with no explanation of what they mean at all.

But I remember last year some discussion of the rarity of the Island being hit from due East. I also recall that the storm(s). that threatened to do so weakened before landfall, so may not have been H1 or above when they did.

So, has Hawaii been hit from due East by an H1 or higher before?

Probably not. Its difficult with the great Hawaiian shear. Easier for a storm to strengthen south of Hawaii in much warmer water and low shear, then get picked up by the trough and move N/NE. Moving with the shear then helps negate some of it and can actually enhance winds, instead of going against it from the east. Thus probably how Iniki hit as cat 4 and Iwa a cat 1

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

The convective ring around Lester's eye has warmed and shrunk a
little in the past couple of hours, but the 15-20 n mi wide eye
remains distinct. Based on a blend of the latest subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set to 115 kt
for this advisory. The forecast environment of low shear,
marginally cool SSTs, and a drier mid-level environment should
result in weakening during the next couple of days. Later in the
period the SSTs remain marginal, but southeasterly shear increases,
and this should result in continued weakening through the rest of
the forecast period. This trend is seen in all of the intensity
guidance, with some spread. The NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted downward a bit this cycle. This forecast is above the
latest IVCN intensity consensus aid through 48 hours and near
the consensus at days 3-5.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10. Lester will continue to be
steered westward and then turn west-northwestward by an expansive
mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean through the forecast period. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however,
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands. The UKMET and GEFS ensemble mean are
along the southern edge of the guidance envelope with a track closer
to the Big Island, while the HWRF and GFDL are farther north of the
island chain. The ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aids lie between these
scenarios just north of the islands. The new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies between the multi-
model consensus and the latest GFS track.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain from this tropical cyclone
given the track forecast uncertainty in 3 to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 17.8N 138.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.1N 142.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.6N 144.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.2N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 20.6N 152.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 22.5N 157.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 162.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[talkon]

Looks to be restrengthening again. Looks like T6.5 now.

[bg1]

So, has Hawaii been hit from due East by an H1 or higher before?

The strongest recorded landfall on the Big Island was Iselle at 50 kts. I couldn't find any hurricane landfall for the other islands from the E.

[WeatherGuesser]

I guess we'll find out Saturday if history has been made then.

Seems like the last couple of years, some 'historic' records have been missed by only very small margins.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks to be restrengthening again. Looks like T6.5 now.

Lester just refuses to give up!

I've lost count of how many times it's defied forecasts and either intensified considerably or stayed the same strength.

A very impressive storm indeed.

[wxmann_91]

Lester is a good example of how dry air is not necessarily a detriment to TC's unless it can get into the core (either via shear or because a cyclone simply gets too large and entrains dry air in the mid-latitudes).

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

Lester's satellite appearance has not changed much since the last
advisory. Although the eye has shrunk a little it remains quite
warm, and the convective ring around the eye still has tops colder
than -70C. The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Lester
has some annular characteristics, with little convective banding.
Given the forecast track through a region of SSTs of 26-27C and in
low shear, steady weakening is expected through the forecast period.
Given the annular structure, the NHC forecast remains above most of
the guidance through much of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Lester will continue to be steered westward
and then turn west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge centered north
of the Hawaiian Islands through the forecast period. The track
models remain in generally good agreement on this scenario, but
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands. The GFS and UKMET models are along the
southern edge of the main guidance envelope, with a track near or
over the islands, while the HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS-TC are farther
north. The NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
and lies very close to the multi-model consensus through the period.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain given the track forecast
uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period. The NASA Gulfstream-V jet is
flying a synoptic surveillance mission around Lester to acquire
additional data for tonight's 00Z global model cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 18.0N 139.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Remains a picturesque Category 4 as it gets ready to exit the EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is a B-line on the Big Island.

[Alyono]

18z GFS is a B-line on the Big Island.

worse, it narrowly misses to the north. Maui, Oahu, Kauai landfalls

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is a B-line on the Big Island.

worse, it narrowly misses to the north. Maui, Oahu, Kauai landfalls

Euro ensemble mean just to the west of Oahu. Massive spread. GFS ensembles continue to shift south.

[Kingarabian]

Hopefully shear increases to slow this monster down.

[isobar]

A beautiful and rare annular TC.

[gatorcane]

What is the COAMPS-TC model that the NHC mentioned in that discussion?

[Kingarabian]

What is the COAMPS-TC model that the NHC mentioned in that discussion?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

It's based off the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

Eye seems to be cooling and convection seems to be warming as Lester enters Madeline's cool wake. Should recover after it passes the wake if shear remains low.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

Lester's satellite appearance has not changed much since the last
advisory. Although the eye has shrunk a little it remains quite
warm, and the convective ring around the eye still has tops colder
than -70C. The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Lester
has some annular characteristics, with little convective banding.
Given the forecast track through a region of SSTs of 26-27C and in
low shear, steady weakening is expected through the forecast period.
Given the annular structure, the NHC forecast remains above most of
the guidance through much of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Lester will continue to be steered westward
and then turn west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge centered north
of the Hawaiian Islands through the forecast period. The track
models remain in generally good agreement on this scenario, but
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands. The GFS and UKMET models are along the
southern edge of the main guidance envelope, with a track near or
over the islands, while the HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS-TC are farther
north. The NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
and lies very close to the multi-model consensus through the period.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain given the track forecast
uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period. The NASA Gulfstream-V jet is
flying a synoptic surveillance mission around Lester to acquire
additional data for tonight's 00Z global model cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 18.0N 139.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan