CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

That's a big change from the GFS going with higher shear this run. Previous runs had very low shear

[Yellow Evan]

That's a big change from the GFS going with higher shear this run. Previous runs had very low shear

Storm path also changed most likely, so the shear increase this run looks suspect.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles very close to Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

GFS ensembles very close to Hawaii.

[img]http://oi65.tinypic.com/2r5evtd.jpg[img]

EPS ensembles over Hawaii the past 4 runs.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS delays development and basically opens the door for an Iniki situation (medium/long range so expect errors of course).



The trend has been that there will be a trough to pick up the system as it nears Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Euro much weaker. I think Lester gets far too close and brings extra shear.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have become more organized over the last
day in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and if
current trends continue a tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Saturday as low moves westward or
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 261223
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98E)

B. 26/1200Z

C. 13.1N

D. 135.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.0. MET=1.5 WITH PT=2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[Extratropical94]

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1400
miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and if
current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Saturday as low moves westward or west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

26/1800 UTC 13.2N 136.2W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982016 08/26/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 52 59 62 61 59 57 57 54
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 52 59 62 61 59 57 57 54
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 52 54 52 50 49 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 10 11 5 7 9 9 11 12 14 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -6 -7 -9 -7 -5 -4 0 1 -1 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 32 44 36 36 29 77 83 128 191 173 200 198 217
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 149 144 138 135 133 130 128 128 130
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 66 64 64 61 58 54 52 51 51 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 14 13 13 12 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 28 27 30 41 33 46 51 58 34 56 47
200 MB DIV 71 71 74 47 43 31 27 53 50 45 29 33 43
700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -6 -4 0 0 0 5 2 2 -1 2
LAND (KM) 2117 2023 1929 1849 1770 1606 1471 1291 1092 896 729 542 357
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 31 31 35 37 31 24 19 9 10 5 7 9 16

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 29. 32. 31. 29. 27. 27. 24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 136.1

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 2.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 -0.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 22.2% 16.8% 11.4% 0.0% 14.3% 13.8%
Logistic: 2.9% 14.6% 6.2% 2.7% 1.2% 6.0% 2.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Consensus: 3.1% 13.7% 8.1% 4.8% 0.4% 6.8% 5.4%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 136.5W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure in
the western part of the eastern North Pacific basin has developed a
well-defined center and has sufficient convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone. The convective pattern displays a
CDO feature near and to the west of the estimated center location
due to some east-northeasterly shear, and the initial intensity is
set to 30 kt based on the latest SAB Dvorak estimate. The cyclone
will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate easterly
shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should allow for
steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone
becoming a hurricane in about 3 days. Later in the forecast period
the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out, which should
result in some weakening. The official intensity forecast is close
to or a little below the IVCN consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 given the
recent formation of the center. The depression is currently
situated on the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered
near 125W. A west-northwestward motion is expected during the first
couple of days of the forecast period as the cyclone moves around
the edge of the ridge. Late in the period a new ridge builds north
of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in a westward motion at
days 3 through 5. The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario, however there is some spread, with the
GFS slower and farther south by day 5, while the ECMWF is faster and
farther north. The NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance
envelope and is a little south of the TVCN consensus and is north of
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
170 miles.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.2N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 15.2N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 16.6N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 18.0N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Alyono]

I may get my second landfall and my forecast of multiple HI landfalls may very well verify

Of course, I may get a third a few days after this

[CrazyC83]

These are busy times in the tropics for sure...also if it goes below about 16N it is not as affected by cooler water?

[Alyono]

These are busy times in the tropics for sure...also if it goes below about 16N it is not as affected by cooler water?

there is no cool water this year.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a 994-996 mb landfall on the big island per the 18z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

These are busy times in the tropics for sure...also if it goes below about 16N it is not as affected by cooler water?

What cooler water? SST's are 27Cish on most of its track.

[cycloneye]

Here comes Madeline.

Location: 13.6°N 137.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[Ntxw]

Quite impressed, we've all been watching the gulf and bahamas but yet the threat seems better feasible with Hawaii...

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  FOURTEEN    EP142016  08/27/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    39    43    48    53    63    69    72    74    72    69    65    60
V (KT) LAND       35    39    43    48    53    63    69    72    74    72    69    65    60
V (KT) LGEM       35    38    41    45    49    56    61    64    65    61    56    51    46
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11     9    11    11     9     5     6     4     3     3     6     9    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -7    -6    -7    -7    -7    -6    -6     0     3     5     4     3     6
SHEAR DIR         56    62    62    62    73    84   106   178    97   175   184   204   213
SST (C)         28.9  28.9  28.8  28.5  28.2  27.5  27.2  27.2  26.9  26.5  26.3  26.5  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   154   153   152   148   145   138   135   135   132   128   126   129   133
200 MB T (C)   -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     7     7
700-500 MB RH     67    67    66    63    65    63    59    57    55    53    52    49    48
MODEL VTX (KT)    13    14    14    15    17    18    18    18    19    18    18    17    15
850 MB ENV VOR    20    22    21    29    36    38    34    40    52    24    34    30    32
200 MB DIV        74    84    57    52    66    55    64    65    26     8    -7    26    22
700-850 TADV      -7    -7    -6    -5    -3     0     1     6     9     8     5     1     2
LAND (KM)       1986  1896  1807  1723  1640  1494  1324  1154   976   780   588   378   170
LAT (DEG N)     13.6  14.2  14.8  15.2  15.5  16.2  17.1  17.7  18.3  18.8  19.2  19.2  18.9
LONG(DEG W)    137.2 137.9 138.5 139.2 139.9 141.1 142.5 144.0 145.6 147.4 149.2 151.2 153.3
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     8     8     7     7     8     8     9     9     9    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      32    36    35    29    25    20     9    10     8     5     7    11    18

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11      CX,CY:  -9/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  436  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           11.3

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   7.  12.  15.  18.  20.  21.  21.  20.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   7.   7.   9.   7.   6.   4.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  13.  18.  28.  34.  37.  39.  37.  34.  30.  25.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   35. LAT, LON:   13.6   137.2

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 FOURTEEN   08/27/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   115.5      40.3  to  144.5       0.72           4.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    31.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.41           3.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    18.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.55           3.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    10.1      18.9  to    1.4       0.50           3.1
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    35.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.35           1.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    66.6     -11.0  to  135.3       0.53           1.7
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   146.0     638.0  to  -68.2       0.70           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     1.5       2.1  to   -1.7       0.16          -0.2
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  29% is   2.2 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  14% is   3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  18% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    11.7%   28.9%   21.6%   14.8%   14.0%   18.3%   16.4%
    Logistic:     6.1%   16.6%    8.9%    3.5%    1.5%    7.3%    6.1%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    3.8%    1.3%    0.2%    0.0%    0.4%    0.4%
   Consensus:     6.0%   16.4%   10.6%    6.2%    5.2%    8.7%    7.7%